Rough week last week both for the Texans in real life and for the fantasy owners who started their players. Most of us expected the Texans defense to struggle, and I suggested you sit them on your bench, but I expected a lot more out of Matt Schaub who put up a pitiful total of seven points against the Patriots 29th ranked pass defense. Arian Foster and Andre Johnson had good games, but overall it was a lackluster effort..
Facing the Colts at home at noon is less daunting than a prime time game at New England in the cold and rain; expect them to bounce back with better numbers this week.
Arian Foster - Despite underwhelming performances in his last two games, Foster has still turned in solid fantasy games. He's totaled just 84 rushing yards over his last two games, a total that would be disappointing for a single game, but reached the end zone in both games to save the week for his fantasy owners. In my opinion the offensive line deserves most of the blame this season for the struggles with the running game. They're playing backups, they've had some injuries, and I don't expect things to get much better until they address it in the off-season. However, they do have a chance for a bounce back this week against a soft Colts run defense. The Colts rank 19th in rushing yards allowed, 23rd in rushing touchdowns allowed, and 28th in yards per carry allowed at 4.7 yards per rush attempt. Foster has been held under 10 fantasy points only once this entire season; keep him active this week.
Andre Johnson - The Colts have struggled against the pass this season, ranking 20th in passing yards and touchdowns allowed, and 28th in passes intercepted. He's being targeted by Schaub nearly 12 times a game over the six games since the bye week; I expect at least 80 yards from him this week. Johnson is playing well over the last month or so and is a must-start this week.
Matt Schaub - Not that you should put much stock in it, but Schaub has been much better in regional day games this season than he has been in nationally televised games in prime time. Take it for what you will, but his day game/night game splits are pretty drastic.
Day Games: 280 yards per game, 19 TD/4 INT
Night Games: 192 yards per game, 2 TD/6 INT (NYJ, GB, CHI, NEP)
He's at home, it's a day game, and the Colts struggle against the pass; he's a good, low-end option this week. I have him ranked between 10-12th among quarterback this week depending on if RG3 plays; he's worth a start if your other quarterback has a tough match up.
Texans Defense - Like Schaub they're a low-end option this week but I still like their chances to turn in a nice fantasy performance. The Colts give up sacks and turn the ball over, so even if the Texans allow 20+ points, they could still have a nice performance for fantasy owners. The Colts have turned the ball over at least once in 11 of their 13 games this season and have at least two turnovers in each of their last five games (13 total). On top of turning the ball over, the Colts can't protect Luck and rank just 25th in sacks allowed. I don't have much confidence in the Texans pass defense right now, but the Colts offensive line hasn't played well and despite leading six game winning drives, Luck is still a rookie who makes mistakes and turns the ball over. They may give up 24 points, but I think they'll get enough sacks and turnovers to make up for it and turn in a good fantasy game.
Owen Daniels - I feel mixed over this decision, but I just don't trust Daniels enough right now to recommend that you start him. Daniels has been held to single digit fantasy points in each of his last four games and was only targeted three times last week. Until Schaub starts to look for him more, keep him on the bench.
Shayne Graham - He's been held to single digit fantasy points two games in a row and despite a favorable matchup, I'd still sit him this week. He's been inconsistent, his leg strength has been an issue, and I don't trust him past 45 yards. It doesn't seem like Kubiak does either after they passed on a couple field goals last week.
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