SB Nation Houston: All Posts by Brian McDonald

NFL Playoffs: Houston Texans Vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction

2013-01-04T17:51:42Z

Well here we go again. Not only is the location and their playoff opponent the same for the Texans this season, but the lack of momentum going in is also similar to last year. With talk radio and 24 hour news on ESPN, it's easy to think that the latest situation is always much worse than what happened in previous years, but that's not the case for the Texans.

Just compare how the Texans finished each of the last two seasons.

2011

Texans clinched the division with a win during their 13th game and had a good chance at a bye.
They lost every game after they clinched including two defeats to teams they were favored to beat (home vs. 4-9 Panthers & at 1 win Colts).
Slipped to the third seed and had to face the Bengals in the first round

2012

Texans clinched the division with a win during their 14th game and had a great chance at a bye.
Lost every game after they clinched, both to teams they were big favorites against
Slipped to the third seed and had to face the Bengals in the first round

As you see, their situation this year isn't any worse than last year, and they ended up beating the Bengals 31-10 and nearly upsetting the Ravens on the road last season in a close game. Both teams fell flat after clinching the division despite having something to play for with a bye on the line and disappointed fans by having to play in the wildcard round. Same as this year, fans started to panic, experts on TV and radio picked the Bengals to win because the Texans had lost their momentum, but none of that mattered once they took the field. I'm not saying the Texans will definitely flip the switch and play like they did in September and October, but the reasons fans are giving this year as to why the Texans will fall flat and get knocked out in the first round, are the same as the reasons they gave last year as to why they would definitely lose. The Texans haven't played well, they have several issues that are very concerning, but this team is capable of playing much better and Bengals are far from a great team.

Texans Offense vs. Bengals Defense:

The biggest problem the Bengals are likely to cause for the Texans will be blocking against their defensive line. The Bengals defensive line has played extremely well and could ruin the Texans day if they're able to dominate, especially against the right side of the Texans line. Cincinnati finished the season ranked third in sacks 51 (seven more than Houston) but unlike Houston, their pressure came from every guy on the line instead of just one player. Geno Atkins led all defensive tackles this season with 12.5 sacks and defensive ends Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap, and Michael Gilberry combined for 24 sacks; they can put pressure on the quarterback with all four guys. The Texans rank 7th in sacks allowed so Schaub getting hit isn't my main concern, but pressure from lineman will also blow up the running game, especially if Atkins is able to penetrate up the middle. The Bengals aren't an elite run defense, they rank 12th in yards allowed and 11th in yards per carry, but the Texans have issues on the right side of the line in run blocking and have too often allowed defenders to penetrate on the stretch play and hit Foster before he has a chance to find his cutback lane. Before giving up over 200 rushing yards last week to Baltimore in a game neither team treated as important, the Bengals had a streak going of five straight games where they held their opponent under 100 rushing yards; three of which they held the other team under 50 yards.

When the Texans faced the Bengals in the playoffs last season, they were missing corner back Leon Hall who ruptured his Achilles tendon and missed the final seven games of the season. Hall isn't Darrelle Revis, but he's a pretty good corner and makes a big difference when facing a team with a receiver like Andre Johnson. The Bengals finished this season ranked 7th in passing yards allowed and 4th in passing touchdowns allowed; I wouldn't expect Schaub to have a great game. If the Texans are to win this game, Derek Newton has to play well and their offensive line has to hold up when they run the stretch play. If they don't run the ball well, they don't have a chance.

Texans Defense vs. Bengals Offense:

The Bengals offense is solid, but hasn't improved much from last season. They dropped off a bit in yards gained, they ranked 20th last season and fell to 22nd this year. As you would expect, their rank in passing yards and rushing yards are almost exactly the same as last season. Second year quarterback Andy Dalton threw for more touchdowns this season, but also threw more interceptions. I hate to use the term game manager, but that's what Dalton is at this point in his career. He's capable of making plays occasionally, but the team is better off when he throws 25 times and not 40 times. Using the ESPN stat QBR which is more useful than QB rating in my opinion, Dalton ranks as exactly average with a QBR of 50.73 out of a possible 100. Dalton has a great receiver with A.J. Green and I think Green-Ellis has played better than Cedric Benson did last season, so in my opinion it's been mostly the offensive line that has held them back. The Bengals ranked 26th in sacks allowed this season; J.J. Watt should be in for a big game.

The Bengals run game doesn't scare me, they ranked 18th in yards, 18th in touchdowns, and 20th in yards per carry; I have no doubt that the Texans 7th ranked rush defense will handle them. When the Texans are on defense, it'll come down to whether or not the Bengals can protect Dalton long enough for him to find Green or Jermaine Gresham. The Texans should be able to double Green and limit his production, but the Texans linebackers trying to cover Gresham could be an issue. The Texans can make that a moot point with a solid pass rush.

Prediction:

Texans 20
Bengals 17

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Poll

Who will win?

Texans

60 votes

Bengals

50 votes

110 votes | Poll has closed

NFL End Of Season Awards

2013-01-03T18:45:36Z

The writers and media members with actual votes that count towards the NFL post season awards have a very difficult job this year. Look at the votes for comeback player of the year and rookie of the year, how can one decide with absolute certainty on who should win those awards? In the rookie vote, you have three quarterbacks who led their team to the playoffs and all posted solid numbers this season, along with two running backs (Alfred Morris and Doug Martin) who will likely finish fourth and fifth this year respectively, but would win the award in almost any other year. There aren't as many candidates for comeback player of the year, but the decision is just as tough. We're left to choose between a running back who rushed for the second most yards in a single season after tearing his ACL last December, and a quarterback who threw for over 4,600 yards after having four neck surgeries last year. Both guys put up monster stats, both led their team to more wins than the previous year and into the playoffs, and both guys overcame major injuries most people thought would hold them back; how do you choose one over the other? I don't have an official vote on any of these awards, but here is who I would pick.

Rookie Of The Year:

Andrew Luck - Colts

4,374 yards, 23 TD/18 INT

Tough choice, but the situation he stepped into was set up for him to fail with his coach having to leave the team, having no offensive line to protect him, and having other rookies starting around him at running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Yet, he overcame all of it and set the NFL record for passing yards from a rookie and led his team to the playoffs.

Runner Up - Robert Griffin III

Comeback Player of the Year:

Adrian Peterson - Vikings

2,097 yards, 6.0 yards per carry, 12 touchdowns

You can make the argument that the injury Manning suffered was more serious, but he had a whole year to rehab compared to Peterson who had eight months. Don't forget, when Peterson went down in late December last year, most people thought he'd come back around week six at the earliest. He not only came back quicker than we assumed, but he came within nine yards of breaking a nearly 30 year old record. Also, running backs get hit nearly every play with carries, receptions, and pass blocking; the physical pounding they take is much greater than a quarterback. They both had amazing seasons, but I was more amazed by what Peterson was able to do.

Runner Up - Peyton Manning

Defensive Player of the Year:

J.J. Watt - Texans

20.5 sacks, 39 tackles for loss, 16 passes defensed, 4 forced fumbles

This was by far the easiest of all the awards to decide on. He not only was the most dominate defensive player in the league this season, it can be argued he had the most dominate season ever by a defensive player. Watt led the league this season in sacks, tackles for loss, and led all non-cornerbacks in passes defensed. Football Outsiders has a great stat for defensive players called "Defeats". A Defeat is any tackle for loss, turnover or tipped pass that leads to a turnover, or tackle/pass defensed that prevents a conversion on 3rd or 4th down. Basically, a measure of how many big plays a player makes that impact games and lead to wins. Watt smashed the record this season with 56 defeats; the previous record was held by Ray Lewis with 45 from the 1999 season. Von Miller and Aldon Smith had great seasons, but there shouldn't even be a conversation as to who is the defensive player of the year.

Runner Up - Von Miller

MVP:

Tom Brady - Patriots

4,827 yards, 34 TD/8 INT

I know, I'm supposed to pick either Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, or J.J. Watt, but let me explain. This award is not a best player in the league award, the word valuable means a lot to me when deciding on who to pick. The other three guys I mentioned might be better players than Brady at this point, but I believe that Brady is the most valuable or to look at it another way, the most difficult to replace if his team were to lose him. The Broncos have a great defense and made the playoffs last season with a fullback pretending to be a quarterback. The Texans still have an offense and other good (but obviously not great like Watt) players on defense to lean on and I believe would still win 10 games and make the playoffs without Watt. On Peterson, he had an amazing year, but I think saying he carried the Vikings to the playoffs by himself would be unfair. The Vikings actually rank two spots lower (18th to 20th) this season compared to last year in offensive yards gained. Not saying that Peterson doesn't deserve credit, but I think the biggest reason they improved by seven wins is because their defense jumped from 31st in points allowed last season, to 14th this season. Peterson was historically great, but it can be argued that their defense that allowed nearly seven fewer points per game deserves more credit for their trip to the playoffs. On the other side, the Patriots would fall apart without Brady. The Patriots rank 1st in offensive yards gained and 25th in defensive yards allowed; they live and die with their offense and Brady is the best quarterback in the league. On top of having to carry a weak defense, Brady has also had to carry along an offense that was missing one or both of their start tight ends for most of the season. Brady threw for more yards and fewer interceptions than Peyton Manning and the Broncos without a doubt would have a better chance to make the playoffs without their quarterback in comparison to the Patriots. Tom Brady is the rightful MVP for this season.

Runner Up - J.J. Watt

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Poll

Who should win the MVP Award?

Peyton Manning

13 votes

Adrian Peterson

10 votes

Tom Brady

6 votes

J.J. Watt

10 votes

Aaron Rodgers

1 votes

40 votes | Poll has closed

Houston Texans Hangover: Grading The Regular Season

2013-01-02T17:39:34Z

The Texans came into the 2012 regular season with high expectations from media members and high hopes from fans who thought of them as a Super Bowl contender. Early on the Texans exceeded those expectations with a 5-0 start that extended to 11-1 with big wins over Denver, Chicago, and Baltimore. There were issues with the pass defense and fans were concerned with the right side of the offensive line, but most still viewed them as one of the leagues elite teams. Then they went to New England and the wheels came off and they've been spiraling out of control ever since. The Patriots slapped them around on a cold Monday night by a 42-14 score, but losing in New England is hardly shocking and by itself not a reason for pushing the panic button. However, following up that loss with two more losses to teams they were favored against has driven Texans fans to the brink of their own cliff if they haven't gone over already.

They are in the playoffs and anyone in the playoffs has a chance to win, but they sure don't seem like a contender right now. When firing on all cylinders, they're still capable of beating almost every team in the league. I'm not sure what the opposite of firing on all cylinders is, but that's where they are right now and even if they flip the switch, they'll have to win at Denver and at New England to reach the Super Bowl; a nearly impossible task.

Offense: B

The Texans offense has never seemed quite right this season. They've shown flashes of the offense we expected to see, but have been very inconsistent. For the season the Texans rank seventh in yards gained and eighth in points scored; a respectable total, but we all expected more from them. What or who is to blame for the drop off in production? I'll put most of that blame on the offensive line and the run blockers they've lost over the last couple seasons. Over the last two off-seasons they've lost a Pro-Bowl fullback in Vonta Leach, a good run blocking tight end in Joel Dreesen, and the right side of their offensive line when they cut Eric Winston and lost Mike Brisiel to the Raiders in free-agency. That loss in run blocking has not only hurt their run game, but has hurt the efficiency of the passing game which relies heavily on deception with the play action pass.

Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, and Matt Schaub all had Pro-Bowl seasons (though Schaub's selection is debatable) but the offensive line has held them back. The running lanes for Foster have been smaller and Schaub has seen pressure in his face with more frequency in comparison to the last couple seasons. Foster ran for his lowest yards per carry total of his career but still managed to rack up 1,424 yards and 15 touchdowns, a credit to what a great running back he is. Likewise, Andre Johnson proved the people who claimed he was over the hill wrong with a monster season of 112 catches and 1,598 yards (a career best in yards).

Most of the blame goes to the offensive line, but not all of it; Schaub deserves some as well. His arm strength has always been an issue, but his decision making has also seemed to decline. Too often he's forced a pass deep instead of picking up 10 easy yards to a wide open receiver on an underneath route. He's also been late on a lot of passes, too often waiting an extra second to release the ball on a deep pass off a play action fake. In that extra second, a quick receiver like Andre Johnson is another 10 yards down field, a big deal for a quarterback without a strong arm. His arm strength is a limiting factor, but if he took the open underneath routes and threw the deep passes on time, that deficiency wouldn't be as noticeable. At one time I thought they could win big with Schaub, I no longer believe that.

Defense: B+

Outside of J.J. Watt, almost the entire unit was a disappointment. Watt, who should be the runaway winner for defensive player of the year and finish in the top 5 for MVP, led the league in sacks, tackles for loss, and led all non-cornerbacks in passes defensed. Watt improved greatly from his rookie year, his sack total jumped up by 15, but unfortunately the rest of the defense did not follow his lead. The blame needs to be spread around, but the most noticeable drop off came from Connor Barwin who led the team last season in sacks with 11.5, but finished 2012 with only three. The biggest problem with the defense this season in my opinion has been the lack of a pass rush from everyone not named J.J. Watt. They ended this season with 44 sacks just like they did last year, but the pass rush hasn't been as effective. The 11.5 sacks from Barwin last year to lead the team represented 26% of the total team sacks. The team leading 20.5 sacks from Watt this season represent 46% of the team sacks. It's easier for the opponent to block when the pressure is coming from just one player.

The pass coverage struggled over the second half of the season. The linebackers in particular have been exposed in pass coverage after the injury that ended Brian Cushing's season. Overall I think the four starters in the secondary have played well but they have issues with depth. Kareem Jackson has improved and Johnathan Joseph is a very good corner when healthy, but they lost slot corner Brice McCain to injury and Alan Ball and Brandon Harris can't cover. All that being said, the quality of the pass rush and the quality of the pass coverage go hand in hand. If the pass rush was more consistent, their pass coverage would look better.

Special Teams: C

It was a rough year for the kick team. They ranked 23rd in kick off return average and didn't return a single kick or punt for a touchdown. On the other side, they ranked 27th in opponents kick return average allowed and 20th in opponents punt return average and allowed a combined three return touchdowns. Keshawn Martin has shown flashes and seems to be close to breaking a big return, but bottom line, none of their returners got the job done.

Donnie Jones wasn't spectacular in the punt game but he did a pretty good job. The Texans don't rank very high in net punt average, though most of that blame goes to the coverage unit, but Jones is tied for third in the league in punts placed inside the 20 yard line. Shayne Graham was solid inside of 40 yards, problem is, you sometimes need kicks over 40 yards to win. Inside of 40 yards, he was perfect this year. Beyond 40 yards, he went 11-18, just 61 percent. Hopefully Randy Bullock is ready to go next season.

Overall: B+

Poll

What grade would you give the Texans so far this season?

A

2 votes

B

19 votes

C

9 votes

30 votes | Poll has closed

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Game Two Prediction

2012-12-28T17:52:05Z

Will the Texans apply a tourniquet in time or will they continue to bleed out and stumble into the playoffs as the third seed without a bye? Its clear cut, win and they'll be the number one seed and be in a great situation to reach the Super Bowl, lose and they'll have to play in the wildcard round and go on the road in round two like last year; a serious blow to their chances to make a deep playoff run. There are possible scenarios in which they could lose on Sunday and still end up as the first or second seed, but that seems extremely unlikely considering they'd need the Denver Broncos and/or New England Patriots to lose and those two teams are playing the Chiefs and Dolphins (both home games). Either way as the first seed or the third seed, I think the Texans will only win one playoff game. I just don't like their chances against Denver or New England right now with the way they can spread out the defense and attack the Texans holes. However, if that one win is in the 2nd round as the top seed, then they'll be in a one game scenario at home with a puncher's chance that something weird or lucky could happen and send them to the Super Bowl. If they're the third seed, no way can they win back to back road games at Denver and New England.

Despite winning their first matchup by 12, the Texans didn't dominate that game. They led by only six going into the fourth quarter and benefited from costly mistakes from the Colts. Had Mewelde Moore held on to the ball at the one yard line and Bryan Braman not come through untouched, the Colts win that game 24-22. I believe the Texans are the better team, but the better team doesn't always win. They needed help from the Colts to win the last game, I wouldn't count on getting help again with this matchup in Indianapolis and the added emotional boost from Chuck Pagano returning to the team.

What should we make of the Texans? Are they the team that beat Baltimore by 30 points or the team that looked pathetic at home against an average Vikings team? There seems to be a trend in their three losses. Not that this will shock you, but in their three losses the running game and more specifically Arian Foster has struggled and Matt Schaub has failed to pick up the slack. In those three losses, Foster has averaged 30 yards on 2.14 yards per carry while Schaub has thrown for an average of 214 yards with a combined zero touchdown passes to three interceptions.

Arian Foster:

Packers - 17 carries for 29 yards
Patriots - 15 carries for 46 yards
Vikings - 10 carries for 15 yards

Matt Schaub:

Packers - 232 yards, 0 TD/2 INT
Patriots - 232 yards, 0 TD/1 INT
Vikings - 178 yards, 0 TD/0 INT

Texans Offense vs. Colts Defense

The Texans will need another big game from Arian Foster who ran for a season high 165 yards in their last meeting. The Texans not only depend on the run to pick up yards, but their passing game tends to fall apart without help from the running game to set up their playaction, bootleg passing attack. A week after giving up the big game to Foster, the Colts allowed the Chiefs to run for 352 yards on eight yards per carry including 226 from pro bowl back Jamaal Charles. The Colts rank 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed, the Texans need to dominate on the ground early to set up their passing game and quiet the crowd. In four career games against the Colts, Arian Foster is averaging 164 rushing yards per game on 6.6 yards per carry with five touchdowns; they need another monster game from him this week. They'll have opportunities to make plays in the passing game, but their success will come down to how well they run the ball.

Texans Defense vs. Colts Offense

The Texans shouldn't expect to and don't need to shut down the Colts offense. They held Reggie Wayne to 14 yards receiving and Andrew Luck completed less than 50 percent of his passes in their last game, but Vick Ballard ran for over 100 yards against them and the Colts had the ball in the 4th quarter with a chance to take the lead. The Texans don't need to shut out the Colts, just hold them at or under 20 points and that should be good enough for a win. Ballard ran the ball well in their last game, but having Brooks Reed back should help because Whitney Mercilus has struggled against the run. Luck has played better at home this season, but has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in four straight games and has averaged just 195 yards passing in his last three games. He's played well for a rookie, but I don't believe he's capable yet of the type of consistency it takes to win a big game like this. He's led several comebacks, but part of that is because he's played poorly in the first half and put his team in a hole.

Texans Win If

Arian Foster runs for over 115+ yards on 4.5 YPC or better
J.J. Watt dominates the Colts offensive line again
Matt Schaub avoids big mistakes

Colts Win If

Andrew Luck throws for 300+ yards, 2 or more touchdowns, and completes 60% or better
Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis get to Schaub and combine for three or more sacks
Limit Arian Foster to under four yards per carry

Prediction:

Texans 24
Colts 20

Houston Texans Vs. Minnesota Vikings: Preview And Prediction

2012-12-21T17:46:33Z

Much like the Colts game last week, there is a lot more on the line for the Texans vs. Vikings game in week 16 than anyone expected when the schedule was released. The Texans chances of locking up home field advantage received a huge boost thanks to the San Francisco 49ers road win over the New England Patriots and they can clinch with a win this week over Minnesota. On the other side the Vikings also have a lot on the line in terms of playoff scenarios and a chance at NFL history. At this moment they're the sixth seed based on tiebreakers, but with five teams all at 8-6, they'll likely need to win out to make the playoffs. Also on the line is the single season rushing record with Vikings running back Adrian Peterson 294 yards short of Eric Dickerson's record 2,105 yards set back in 1984 with the Rams.

Texans Offense vs. Vikings Defense

Through 14 games the Vikings rank 13th in rushing yards allowed, 12th in rushing touchdowns allowed, and 8th in yards per carry; it won't be easy for Arian Foster this week. Last week Foster rushed for a season high 165 yards; his highest total since the last game of the 2010 season against the Jaguars. One of the more encouraging signs from last week was that Foster had 92 yards on just six carries over the right tackle. The majority of the Texans runs went over the right side last year but they've struggled to get a push for most of this season on the right side. If that side of the line starts to play better with the increased playing time for rookie Brandon Brooks, we could see Foster's production return to 2010 levels. He probably won't run for 165 yards again, but I expect him to have success and be near the century mark.

The Vikings can be beat through the air. They allowed Sam Bradford (a lesser quarterback compared to Matt Schaub) to throw for 377 yards and three touchdowns last week. Andre Johnson caught 11 passes last week for 151 yards and a touchdown; he's gone over 150 yards receiving in three of his last five games. The Vikings rank 23rd in passing yards allowed and 21st in passing touchdowns allowed; expect another big game from the veteran wide out.

Owen Daniels just hasn't been the same player after suffering a back injury. Before the injury Daniels had a stretch of five touchdowns in six games and was held under 50 yards in only two of those games. In the five games since he returned, Daniels has gone over 50 yards just once and scored only one touchdown. A disappointing finish to what was a great start to the 2012 season for Daniels.

The people who claim Kubiak doesn't pass enough on early downs are just factually incorrect, but I do believe it's important for the Texans to be aggressive this week. That doesn't mean abandon the run, what I mean is I don't want to see them settle for field goals, run draw plays on 3rd and 14, and give up on drives as Kubiak is sometimes prone to do. The best defense against Adrian Peterson is to build up a big lead with your offense and force the Vikings to pass the ball in an effort to catch up. The Texans rank third in the NFL this season in first half scoring with an average of 15.8 while the Vikings allow an average 10.8; the Texans have to score early and score touchdowns instead of attempting six field goals like they did last week. If they allow the Vikings to hang around, Peterson will ruin their day.

Texans Defense vs. Vikings Offense

The game plan should be very simple. The Texans need to line up five guys right on the line and walk down Danieal Manning or Glover Quin from their regular safety spot and put eight and sometimes nine guys in the box on every play that's not an obvious passing down. I'm not suggesting they use five lineman, but they should have their linebackers and a safety up tight to the line, kind of like the 46 defense the 1985 Bears used.

I know some Texans fans will look at their rank in rushing yards allowed (5th) and believe the Texans can stop Peterson without selling out, but as I've stated many times, that rank is artificial in my opinion. The Texans rush defense is very average, but because they've blown out so many teams (rank 5th in point differential, with four wins by 20+) their opponents have had to abandon the running game and air it out in the second half to attempt to catch up. Through 14 games, the Texans have faced the fewest opponent rushing attempts in the league at 22.5 per game; by comparison the Texans run the ball an average of 33.7 times per game. The Texans rank 12th in the league in rushing yards per carry allowed this season, that rank I believe is a more accurate picture of how well they stop the run.

Houston allowed 105 yards on 5.8 yards per carry to Vick Ballard last week, 9.4 yards per carry to Joique Bell, 6.5 yards per carry to C.J. Spiller, 4.6 yards per carry to Ray Rice, 4.9 yards per carry to Reggie Bush, 5.6 yards per carry to Chis Johnson; all running backs who are inferior to Peterson to say the least. Peterson has racked up over 100 rushing yards eight games in a row including going over 150 yards six times, and over 200 yards twice during that span. Remember this, every team that has faced the Vikings this year has gone into the game knowing they need to focus on one player. The Vikings rank 32nd, dead last in passing yards and 27th in passing touchdowns. Christian Ponder has thrown for less than 150 yards in five of his last eight games and has six touchdowns to eight interceptions during that same span. Yet, despite playing with a bad quarterback and having the defense focused entirely on him, Peterson has still run all over teams. Peterson rushed for 182 yards against the Seahawks who rank 10th against the run; I'd take "holding" him to 145 yards on Sunday as a huge victory.

The Vikings Will Win If...

Ponder throws for over 225 yards and doesn't turn it over.
They stuff the Texans running game and hold Foster under 60 yards.
Adrian Peterson has another monster game with over 200 yards rushing

Prediction:

Texans 27
Vikings 17

Fantasy Football: Houston Texans Week Sixteen Start 'Em/Sit 'Em

2012-12-20T17:08:57Z

This week is championship week for any league that isn't a fraud. Seriously, if you're league has it's championship game in week 17 of the NFL season, you should quit that league next year. I'm in the championship game this week for three of my six leagues (made the playoffs in five of six) so I'll be biting my nails and cursing the TV when a backup running back steals a cheap one yard touchdown run away from the starter right along with you guys. Before you set that lineup, check out this week's edition of Texans start 'em/sit 'em.

Start:

Arian Foster - The Vikings have a good but not great run defense, but Arian Foster is a must start even against the best run defenses. Through 14 games the Vikings rank 13th in rushing yards allowed, 12th in rushing touchdowns allowed, and 8th in yards per carry; it won't be easy for him this week. Last week Foster rushed for a season high 165 yards; his highest total since the last game of the 2010 season against the Jaguars. One of the more encouraging signs from last week was that Foster had 92 yards on just six carries over the right tackle. The majority of the Texans runs went over the right side last year but they've struggled to get a push for most of this season on the right side. If that side of the line starts to play better with the increased playing time for rookie Brandon Brooks, Foster's numbers should return to 2010 levels. Foster has been extremely consistent this season, only once being held to single digit fantasy points. He remains a must start this week.

Andre Johnson - Like Foster, Andre Johnson is a must start every week. Johnson caught 11 passes last week for 151 yards and a touchdown; he's gone over 150 yards receiving in three of his last five games. The Vikings rank 23rd in passing yards allowed and 21st in passing touchdowns allowed; keep him active.

Texans Defense - They're going to give up at least 125 yards, probably 150, to Adrian Peterson but they should still have a good fantasy game. Every team that's faced the Vikings has known going in that they would feed Peterson the ball all game long because they have almost no passing game, yet he's gone over 150 yards in six of his last eight games. However, there will still be plenty of opportunities to score points off of Christian Ponder. The Vikings rank 32nd, dead last in passing yards and 27th in passing touchdowns. Ponder has thrown for less than 150 yards in five of his last eight games and has six touchdowns to eight interceptions during that same span. Think of Ponder as another Jake Locker or Blaine Gabbert; the Texans defense should have a good game.

Shayne Graham - He made five field goals last week despite looking shaky at times. Graham has reached double digit points in three of his last five games and is a good start this week. The Texans facing an average defense plays in his favor this week since they should move the ball, but the Vikings toughing up in the red zone combined with Kubiak's conservative nature should lead to several field goal attempts for the veteran kicker. This game being indoors also helps his fantasy value since he doesn't have a leg capable of kicking through strong winds.

Sit:

Matt Schaub - He ranks just 15th in fantasy points in my standard scoring league so far this year so he's not a must start quarterback, but one you should only play when he has a great matchup or your other quarterback has a tough matchup. Schaub had a decent game last week and put up 16 fantasy points, but if you're still playing at this point that means you're probably in the championship round and will need more than 16 points from your quarterback. He totaled 261 yards and one touchdown last week, which is about what I expect his numbers to look like again in this game. He won't kill you this week, but he won't carry you with a big game either. I would only start Schaub if you're other quarterback is facing a top five pass defense. For most of you, I'd recommend that you sit him.

Owen Daniels - He just hasn't been the same player after suffering a back injury. Before the injury Daniels had a stretch of five touchdowns in six games and was held under 50 yards in only two of those games. In the five games since he returned, Daniels has gone over 50 yards just once and scored only one touchdown. A disappointing finish to what was a great start to the 2012 season for Daniels; put him on your bench if he wasn't there already.

J.J. Watt: Making The Case For MVP

2012-12-19T17:11:49Z

Much like the Heisman award, the highest honor in college football, the MVP award in pro football typically goes to offensive players. In fact, only three non-offensive players (defensive tackle, kicker, linebacker) have been named league MVP since the NFL started giving out the award in 1957 (Jim Brown).

MVP voters favor offensive players because they put points up on the board and that's easier for them to evaluate than the impact of a defensive player, but ignoring Watt's "value" would be foolish. He's taking points off the board with forced fumbles and batted passes that turn into interceptions, he's putting opposing offenses in 3rd in long situations with sacks and by juking blockers to tackle runners in the backfield. Even when he doesn't get the sack, he's putting pressure on the quarterback, causing them to just throw the ball away instead of trying to complete a pass. On Sunday the MVP candidate had three sacks, four other tackles for no gain or a loss, and a forced fumble that took seven points off the board for the Colts who were on the one yard line.

Watt is now tied for the league lead in sacks and trails Michael Strahan's league record by just three sacks. If the Texans don't rest Watt in the final game, he has a great shot to break the single season sack record. Even if he doesn't break the sack record, this will still go down as one of the most dominate, impressive performances from a defensive player in NFL history. He impacts the game and makes plays in every way possible on defense. Eric Adelson of Yahoo Sports put it very well recently in an article he wrote on Watt's impact on the game and chances to win the MVP award:

Watt causes disruption. He disrupts pass plays, run plays, every play. He disrupts thinking, reacting and planning. He disrupts A gaps, B gaps, C gaps and the gaps he creates by physically removing people from his path.

Watt does not score touchdowns, but Sunday's win was a pristine example of how a defender can play offense. Watt had two sacks, two tackles for loss, a forced fumble at the Texans' 1-yard line and he forced Luck to throw it away twice – in the first half. He ended the game with 10 tackles, three sacks, the forced fumble, and four tackles for no gain or loss. That's moving the football.

Watt wasn't just in the backfield all afternoon; he was deep in the backfield all afternoon. So any momentum Luck could generate was snuffed out by Watt gashing the pocket and forcing the rookie quarterback into third-and-impossible. Yes, it's hard to vote for a defender as MVP, since a quarterback has the ball on every play. But Watt is clearly affecting the person with the ball on every play. Isn't that just as "valuable"?

I've heard the argument that breaking the sack record wouldn't mean as much today because the league has more teams "airing it out" than in years past, giving defenders more chances to rush the passer, but the numbers don't back up that logic.

Opponents Pass Attempts Per Game:

Michael Strahan (22.5 sacks - 2001): 521 pass attempts, 32.56 per game
Mark Gastineau (22 sacks - 1984): 511 pass attempts, 31.93 per game
Reggie White: (21 sacks - 1987, 12 games) 561 pass attempts, 37.4 per game
Lawrence Taylor (20.5 - 1986): 587 pass attempts, 36.68 per game
J.J. Watt (19.5 sacks - 2012 Through 14 games): 523 pass attempts, 37.35 per game
Aldon Smith (19.5 sacks - 2012 Through 14 games): 511 pass attempts, 36.5 per game

As you see, that argument just doesn't hold up. The teams Reggie White and Lawrence Taylor faced passed just as often as the teams facing J.J. Watt and Aldon Smith. Assuming the opponent pass attempts per game stays the same, Watt will have had more opportunities than Strahan or Gastineau, but I don't think the difference is drastic enough to take credit away from the season Watt is having.

I believe Watt should be considered a legit MVP candidate even if he doesn't break the sack record. Realistically, he probably will have to break the record to take attention away from Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning, but I think his value and performance goes beyond just his sack total. In one of the advanced stats I like to look at, J.J. Watt ranks number one among all defensive players in the NFL for 'Win Probability Added'. It's kind of similar to the wins above replacement stat used in baseball. Not only does Watt rank number one at 2.71, but it's a landslide; only one other defensive player is above 2.0 (Lawrence Timmons 2.03). What does that stat mean? It means that beyond sacks he's batting down passes, he's making tackles for loss, he's pressuring and hitting the quarterback, he's stuffing the run, he's forcing fumbles, and just creating chaos for every opponent he faces; he makes the most big plays contributing to wins.

Watt is tied for the league lead in sacks, leads the league in passes defensed among non corner backs (yes, including linebackers and safeties), leads the league in tackles for loss with 33 (Von Miller is 2nd with 25), and leads the league in QB hits with 39 (Cameron Wake is 2nd with 28); there should be no debate as to who is the most dominate defensive player in the league. The debate that remains is if he is more valuable than the offensive stars most consider to be the front runners for the award. Using the 'Win Probability Added' stat I mentioned earlier, Watt actually ranks higher in that stat compared to Adrian Peterson (2.71 to 1.22) and higher than any other running back or wide receiver in the league. Watt is also very comparable in that stat to most quarterbacks, including Peyton Manning who ranks just slightly better at 2.85 in Win Probability Added.

No question, the quarterback position is the most important position in the NFL and probably all of sports, but does that necessarily mean they should win the MVP award nearly every season? I think it can be reasonably argued that his value is equal to many of the elite quarterbacks. With Brian Cushing, Brooks Reed, Johnathan Joseph, and Shaun Cody all missing multiple games, Bradie James proving to have the foot speed of a refrigerator, and Connor Barwin having a down year, Watt and nearly Watt alone has been left to lead the defense. Without Watt causing havoc, their already struggling pass defense (18th yards allowed, 25th TD allowed) would be exposed and torched if forced to cover for a longer amount of time. Without Watt the Texans would be ranked near the bottom of the league in sacks this season (no other player has more than six). In the same way a great quarterback like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Aaron Rodgers can carry his teammates and cover up some flaws, a great defensive player like J.J. Watt can do the same thing. The Texans would probably still sneak into the playoffs without Watt, but I believe they'd have at least two fewer wins and would be out of the race for home field advantage, something they need to have for any chance of reaching the Super Bowl. Watt makes big plays, leads his team to wins, and gives the Texans a chance to win the championship; what more do you want out of an MVP?

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Poll

Should J.J. Watt win the MVP?

Yes

42 votes

No

3 votes

45 votes | Poll has closed

Houston Texans Forecast: Looking Ahead to The Vikings

2012-12-18T18:07:20Z

Load The Box:

The Texans game plan on defense should be pretty simple, put eight and sometimes nine guys in the box to play the run and dare the Vikings to try to beat them with the passing game. I'd like to see them put five defenders on the line and walk a safety up on nearly every play. Also, I don't think they should blitz as much this week unless it's an obvious passing situation because that's how Peterson has broken several of his long runs this season. If they blitz, and he gets past the first level, there's no one left to attempt a tackle and I doubt anyone will catch him from behind. I know some Texans fans will look at their rank in rushing yards allowed (5th) and believe the Texans can stop Peterson without selling out, but as I've stated many times, that rank is artificial in my opinion. The Texans rush defense is very average, but because they've blown out so many teams (rank 5th in point differential, four wins by 20+) their opponents have had to abandon the running game and air it out in the second half to attempt to catch up. Through 14 games, the Texans have faced the fewest opponent rushing attempts in the league at 22.5 per game; by comparison the Texans run the ball an average of 33.7 times per game. The Texans rank 12th in the league in rushing yards per carry allowed this season, that rank I believe is a more accurate picture of how well they stop the run.

They allowed 105 yards on 5.8 yards per carry to Vick Ballard last week, 9.4 yards per carry to Joique Bell, 6.5 yards per carry to C.J. Spiller, 4.6 yards per carry to Ray Rice, 4.9 yards per carry to Reggie Bush, 5.6 yards per carry to Chis Johnson; all running backs who are inferior to Peterson to say the least. Peterson has racked up over 100 rushing yards eight games in a row including going over 150 yards six times, and over 200 yards twice during that span. Remember this, every team that has faced the Vikings this year has gone into the game knowing they need to focus on one player. Christian Ponder is throwing for under 190 yards per game and has only two more touchdowns than interceptions (14/12), no one is worried about him making big plays to win games. Peterson rushed for 182 yards against the Seahawks who rank 10th against the run; I'd take holding him to 125 yards on Sunday as a victory.

Be Aggressive On Offense:

Some of the people who claim Kubiak doesn't pass enough on early downs are just factually incorrect, but I do believe it's important for the Texans to be aggressive this week. That doesn't mean abandon the run, what I mean is I don't want to see them settle for field goals and run draw plays on 3rd and 14 and give up on drives. The best defense against Adrian Peterson is to build up a big lead with your offense and force the Vikings to pass the ball in an effort to catch up. The Texans rank third in the NFL this season in first half scoring with an average of 15.8 while the Vikings allow an average 10.8; the Texans have to score early and score touchdowns instead of attempting six field goals like last week. If they allow the Vikings to hang around, Peterson will ruin their day.