SB Nation Houston: All Posts by Rivers McCown

No, No, Gary Kubiak Reeeeallly Likes Kevin Walter

2013-03-21T11:00:10Z

Look, I'm sure there is going to be some splashback on this post. I will preemptively attempt to curb some of that by saying that, yes, Kevin Walter was a very good receiver for some very good Texans offenses in the late 2000s. Great guy to have on your team, and I enjoyed cheering for him. And yes, in general, Gary Kubiak being a player's coach is a good thing. Obviously, your coach backing his players is a good thing, and you don't want him to get down on them or trash them publicly.

But come ON.

"Anything you could ever want your organization to stand for in this business, that's what Kevin Walter is all about," said Gary Kubiak, Texans head coach, in an interview with FOX 26 Sports.

"Hopefully, there's a small window that there's a chance he might come back. We'll see. He's been a class act on and off the field in this city. We are all better people for having been around Kevin."

Kevin Walter could be the best blocking wide receiver on the planet, and his work habits and mental acumen could slay Titus Young impersonators across the country -- he was a supporting player on this team at his peak. Walter was barely worth a roster spot in 2012, and he hasn't been a productive receiver since 2010. Pining over his loss like he was the Ray Lewis of the Texans is, at best, a sign that the loyalty at Reliant has reached creepy Pat Boone-ish levels. At worst? Well, this is what comes to mind when I read the quote.

This insinuation that there might be a small chance that Walter comes back is the height of absurdity. Bringing Kevin Walter back as anything more than a coach is an admission that this offseason was an abject failure. Yes, it's a shame that DeVier Posey's Achilles was torn during the postseason, making the wide receiver position shakier coming into the 2013 season. (Kubiak noted on Wednesday that he was looking at Posey as a "second-half player.") To hide behind that and proclaim that it's just poor injury luck again ... well, that's an excuse that shouldn't have been made five years ago, and certainly not one that should be made now. Andre Johnson can't hold up a Super Bowl trophy with a foundation of excuses under him.

And yet, we're a week-and-a-half into free agency and the Texans have done dip diddly about actually fixing the problem. No visits lined up. No "reported interest." The defense continued to be the focal point with a Brice McCain re-signing and an Ed Reed sideshow that finally resolved itself in the affirmative late Wednesday. The Texans (in my mind, foolishly) let Glover Quin leave without a fight. Or an offer. Or a paean from Gary. So, even if you want to give Reed credit for being an upgrade on Quin (and I don't, but I'll let it happen hypothetically), it's not like he was replacing a scrub. If I squint my eyes I can see where Rick Smith would be coming from, but I don't think Reed is likely to be a drastic improvement on Quin.

And yes, the draft will help. The drafts always help. But look at the current question marks on this roster. Quarterback (yes, quarterback), No. 2 and 3 wide receiver, tight end depth, fullback, right tackle, nose tackle, outside linebacker, inside linebacker, dime safety, special teams. Maybe the draft resolves well, the guys you'd expect to take leaps (Whitney Mercilus, most notably) take them, and some players take unexpected Brice McCain-esque jumps next season ... but that's not really something you want to enter a year needing to happen. There are a lot of holes on this roster that need to be settled, and while the Texans have had some big hits in the draft process (hello, Mr. Watt), they aren't exactly drafting with the efficiency of the Ravens or anything. They themselves will happily admit that players take their biggest leaps from year one to year two.

Rather than make a bold move, rather than restructuring or releasing Antonio Smith for cap money, rather than making a play for established NFL talent, or even making a minor move like the Eagles did to haul in Arrelious Benn, the Texans are pining for Kevin Walter. Kevin Walter!

Time to talk about a dirty little secret: NFL teams love to talk about "the process." The Texans love to talk about building through the draft. Do you remember what happened during the offseason where they leaped from 6-10 to their first division crown? I'll spell this one out for you: it was the Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning signings. Take those guys out of the equation, and Wade Phillips could have coached his balls off and it wouldn't have been enough to get that secondary out of the seven-to-nine win range. Building through the draft works great when you draft J.J. Watt and wind up with one of the most spectacular seasons in NFL history. That isn't going to happen every year. I'm not saying this to shame Rick Smith, because I think he's a fine talent evaluator, but the Rick Smith "process," like most "processes," is a self-sustaining machine capable of winning eight games a year. There are some dumb teams (though less than there once were), but fundamentally there is not much of a difference between the Rick Smith process and say, the Jerry Reese process. It's the bold and calculated risks, along with the true draft home runs and the ability to keep giant roster holes from developing, that build a team capable of winning the Super Bowl.

To be brutally honest, I'm not sure that Matt Schaub is going to bounce back to what he was before the funk of turnovers and awkwardness ended the 2012 season; however, if the Texans are going to go into the season with the thought that he is, maybe finding some actual targets for him to throw to should be a priority. I know that some people are happy with a playoff appearance and think it becomes a bit of a crapshoot when their team arrives -- i think that's an over-simplification, but there's some truth to that. However, I don't think this team as currently constituted is a surefire playoff team. They'll get some help from the poorness of their division and a few games against the Arizonas and Oaklands of the world, but the Colts are a legitimate threat to the crown.

Maybe gambling and shifting some assets around to make a bold and calculated move for elite talent (that, yes, could screw up the cap or "the process" somewhere down the line) is a better idea than envisioning the best-case scenario from the draft. You know, like it was when the Texans robbed from the 2011 and 2012 caps by signing Joseph and Manning. Maybe Ed Reed is that sole move in Rick Smith's eyes -- I don't agree, but I'm willing to entertain the thought. I just think that expecting that to be the move that gets the Texans over the top while praying for best-case scenarios in every other position is a bit much. The Texans have made just one significant new investment in their offense since drafting Duane Brown in 2008. That was Ben Tate, and that was before Arian Foster made him irrelevant. It's starting to show.

Maybe it's time to focus more on finding the next Andre Johnson and less on finding the next Kevin Walter on that side of the ball.

Choose Your Own Adventure: Joe Marciano and The Game Ball of Doom

2013-03-18T14:30:05Z

1. THE BEGINNING

You awaken in a cold sweat.

You are Gary Kubiak, coach of the Houston Texans. You have just fallen asleep on your desk after your season-ending press conference, where you expressed that you believed in 90 percent of the things that kept the Texans from beating the Patriots.

You have a trump card, however: You could still fire special teams coordinator Joe Marciano. After being up-and-down for most of his 10-year tenure as coach, special teams cratered in 2012. Penalties were rampant, blocking was non-existent, lane discipline was unheard of--all problems that pointed specifically to bad coaching. Except for injuries, but injuries are a big part of today's NFL, and the Texans didn't lose anyone particularly good on special teams. But injuries are an easy scapegoat.

On the other hand, Joe is a battle-fighter just like you. He's remained employed for a long time, and so have you. Wait ... that's a terrible reason to want to keep somebody.

He stopped talking to you following Week 15's game against the Colts, after you gave him the game ball because Bryan Braman made a spectacular individual play to block a punt. We all know that this happened due to good coaching.

Marciano's reticence to talk to you, as well as your general gut feeling, tell you that letting the coach go would be a good move. However, you're not entirely sure that doing so is necessary. After all, special teams are the most random part of a football team -- could Marciano bounce back next year after you trade a fourth-round pick to re-acquire Trindon Holliday or Jacoby Jones?

What will you do?

-- TALK TO OWNER BOB MCNAIR ABOUT IT (turn to page [31])
-- TALK TO GENERAL MANAGER RICK SMITH ABOUT IT (turn to page [17])
-- CONFRONT JOE MARCIANO (turn to page [44])
-- CHECK OUT FAN MESSAGE BOARDS TO GAUGE THEIR REACTION TO MARCIANO REMAINING EMPLOYED (turn to page [8])
-- FIRE JOE MARCIANO (turn to page [11])

[3] STARE INTO THE BALL

You suddenly feel a great calmness settling over your mind. The ball knows of your dissatisfaction with your life. Oh sure, you have plenty of money, a great family, and a well-respected job, but you know deep down that you will never be a championship head coach, and it haunts your brain no matter how much you try to fight the idea. To be a winning coach is to take risks, and you have not done that yet.

Suddenly a loop of third-and-long draw plays runs through your mind. You see the punting unit come on. You see Joe laughing. The draw plays. The punting unit. Joe laughing. Draw. Punt. Joe.

You have beckoned the game ball with your inner wishes. You want a life of comfort without responsibility. A life where your opinions are heard and rarely dissected. A world where scrutiny is not attached to every tiny decision you make.

You wake up in front of a computer, with a blanket draped around your legs and your feet kicked up on a stool. You are writing a post about Gary Kubiak's transgressions for a website. Your life is carefree and easy. It does not matter if you misspell something. Tim's got your back.

But boy, that Gary Kubiak guy. What an asshole. I can't believe how conservatively he coaches sometimes!

Your head coaching duties end here.

[8] CHECK OUT FAN MESSAGE BOARDS TO GAUGE THEIR REACTION TO MARCIANO REMAINING EMPLOYED

The police find your disfigured body three days later.

The seething and visceral hatred for you as a person goes beyond even your wildest imagination. People want you dead, your family hurt, and your life ruined all because you send Arian Foster out of the backfield sometimes on third-and-short and you can't manage a clock. You're a tough coach, gosh darn it, but this is a bit over the top. You take to drinking bourbon as you're scrolling through Battle Red Blog and other, less reputable sites through the witching hour.

Your guard is down and you are well past the legal intoxication limit when you are overtaken by an unknown assailant wearing Shayne Graham's skin as a suit. Identifying himself only as somebody from "Houston Diehards," whatever that is. A blog, maybe? You're not sure. Blogs usually have new content.

The unknown assailant demands that you lead him to Joe Marciano. You oblige as he points his skinning knife at your throat.

Marciano, clutching the glowing game ball from Week 15, entangles you and your assailant in some sort of trance as you barge into his office. Your last conscious thoughts are of your family as the assailant's skinning knife is used to cut your flesh from your body.

Days later, it is announced by the team that there was an incident at Reliant Stadium, and that special teams coordinator Joe Marciano was killed in an electrical fire caused by a lone assailant. Gary Kubiak walks to the podium with some weird new facial wrinkles, and announces that he was able to save the entire facility from burning down, but that the Texans would not be able to open the roof at any time in the future. A watchdog media would have been able to figure out the truth in this story, and the investigative journalism team at the Houston Chron--hahahahahahaha

The unknown assailant was arrested and charged with the murder of Joe Marciano. No courtroom in the greater Houston area would convict him.

Your life and your head-coaching duties end here.

[11] FIRE JOE MARCIANO

Your belief in idealism and responsibility are admirable, reader. You have just made a decision that could lead outsiders to believe that the Texans actually do hold people accountable for their on-field failings.

Unfortunately, we can't have that happen.

The second you step in to Joe Marciano's office, a bookcase engulfed in flames falls on you. Joe turns around in his chair holding the game football you gave him. It glows green in his hands, and his eyes radiate the same color.

"That was a hasty decision you made, Gary," Joe says as he stands up and begins to walk toward you. "I have been using the power of this game ball to change our world forever. You will not stand in my way any longer."

You struggle against the bookcase as the essence of your soul is absorbed into the game ball and kept forever. Without you around to stop him, Joe Marciano becomes all-powerful, taking over the head-coaching duties and playing just well enough to keep his job. If only it weren't for injuries!

Your life and your head-coaching duties end here.

[17] TALK TO RICK SMITH ABOUT IT

You enter Rick's office to see him on a yoga mat. He holds a finger to his mouth and motions for you to sit down.

Time passes. Five minutes. 10. 15. You can't count past that because you didn't script that idea into your head. You're about to get up to leave when Rick finally speaks.

"You seek answers that one can only find within. What is the sound of one nose tackle falling in the forest?"

You are confused and ask what a nose tackle is.

"No matter. Joe has grown powerful. You seek to end his reign, yet he seeks to end yours as well. The clash of light and shadow, intertwined." He pauses. "You must know the power of patience. In the time that you will meet, a million Roc Carmichael seasons have occurred. Some of them even involve him playing football at an adequate level."

Rick hands you a Script for the Upcoming Fight. Make sure to write down that you have this item before continuing. Perhaps you can write it on your hand. Other body parts are also acceptable. Or maybe paper, if you want to take this super seriously. Either way, you may be prompted to remember that you have it at some point. Not that we'd spoil the story.

"Gary?"

You look up from the script.

"Tell Antoine Caldwell that I'm ready for my massage if you get a chance."

-- TALK TO OWNER BOB MCNAIR ABOUT IT (turn to page [31])
-- CONFRONT JOE MARCIANO (turn to page [44])
-- CHECK OUT FAN MESSAGE BOARDS TO GAUGE THEIR REACTION TO MARCIANO REMAINING EMPLOYED (turn to page [8])
-- FIRE JOE MARCIANO (turn to page [11])

[24] TRY TO GRAB THE FOOTBALL

You succeed in ripping the ball from Joe Marciano's grasp. Unfortunately, the ball starts to sizzle in your hands, gaining kinetic energy and heat from your own body. Flummoxed, you pick up the ball and hurl it at Marciano with all your might, only to succeed in lobbing it about six yards. It falls dead in front of Marciano, then lifts up of its own accord and flies back into his hands.

"Come now, Gary. Did you really think it would be that easy?"

You're totally perplexed by how weak the throw was. You put your entire arm into it and only found six yards?

"Ah yes, the ball. you might be interested to learn that this was the one Matt Schaub was throwing with for the last six weeks of the season. But perhaps I've already said too much..."

With a jolt, the game ball ensnares both you and Joe in a green curtain of light. You slowly lose consciousness as oxygen drains away.

You awaken five hours later, at a press conference for your own firing. Gary Kubiak takes the stand and says that you were a real battle-fighter, and he's really going to miss you. You look in the mirror, but only see Joe Marciano's face. You try to speak, but words don't come out. The press corps lets out a hideous shriek. You look back into the mirror.

Your head coaching career ends here.

[26] YOU HAVE THE SCRIPT FOR THE UPCOMING FIGHT

Having read your handy copy of The Script For The Upcoming Fight, you are well-versed in how Joe Marciano plans to attack you. It's almost like scripting things without any context for the situation is a silly idea or something!

You parry Marciano's seven consecutive jabs to the face, head-butting him backwards and over his desk. The game ball slips from his hands and hits the ground with a thud, shattering into a thousand patches of leather.

Marciano begins to stir after a few minutes of unconsciousness. "Gary .. what happened?"

You explain things as best as you know, which essentially boils down to him being controlled by a game ball and planning to take over the world somehow.

"Oh no, Gary, that's not true. I just said that for dramatic effect. Isn't every one of these books about some sort of grand scheme of world conquest?"

He's got you there. You prompt him to reveal the real details of his scheme.

"Well Gary, the reason special teams were so awful last year is because they were busy ... helping Mexican drug cartels."

You stare blankly at Joe as he continues.

"I tried so hard over the years to help you, Gary, but I'm just not that good of a coach, is the real truth of it. It was easier to learn how to traffic drugs into the country. Those drugs helped keep fans and coaches that would normally be disgruntled distracted and forgetful about the fact that every time a ball was kicked in Keshawn Martin's general direction last year, the Texans never started past their own 20."

But wouldn't it just be easier to actually, you know, be a good coach? You relay your concerns.

"I'm just one of many, Gary. Why did you think you kept Frank Bush as a defensive coordinator for three seasons? We have a whole guild built around this sort of thing. Dave Wannstedt is chairman. Why did you think I pushed so hard for Braman to make the team? He knows all the inner workings over the border."

Boy, you really thought Frank Bush had improved the defense in 2009, but now, in retrospect, you could see how it may have been a drug-induced hallucination.

Golly, what a day. You uncovered an international conspiracy that kept poor coaches employed long past any objective measure of effectiveness and saved a battlefighter from the dark side. You help Joe up to his feet and sit him on the desk and explain that as much as you've enjoyed having him on staff, it's time to part ways and find a special teams coordinator who actually knows how to coach.

"Wow, Gary, you must have thought about this for a long time, but there's something you're probably forgetting."

-- JOE HAS COMPROMISING PICTURES OF THAT CARIBBEAN VACATION WHERE YOU AND BOB MCNAIR SODOMIZED 30 MIDGETS (turn to page [37]

[31] TALK TO OWNER BOB MCNAIR ABOUT IT

You lope into Bob McNair's office to find him on three different phone calls with three different media outlets. He smiles and waves at you, motioning you to sit down while he completes the calls.

"...and you know, I think we just need to work on some things. Arian Foster needs to work on his run blocking, Derek Newton needs to work on his deep ball. There's just a lot of things around here that need to be worked on. And also injuries. So many injuries. Thank you, Josh."

He hangs up and turns to you.

"Gary, I'm starting to think the media doesn't understand what a bunch of battle-fighters we are here."

You explain that you don't understand how the media works.

"Well, despite the fact that I actually told John McClain to be as nasty about as us he possibly could, people still seem to find our message obtuse for whatever reason. Maybe I should do some more interviews, really get our point out there. Hey, how is Matt Schaub's footspeed coming along anyway?"

You quickly change the subject by bring up your misgivings about Joe Marciano and ask Bob McNair what he thinks about them.

"Special teams? Isn't that the one happens when I'm in the can? I dunno. Is it going to be expensive to replace him?"

You explain that yes, it is the one that happens while he's on the toilet. And that no, it probably wouldn't be prohibitively expensive.

"Well do whatever you have to do Gary, keep battle-fighting out there. I need to go shopping for some new vests to wear during all these interviews. Oh hey, can you call John for me and tell him that I need him to write a story about how Matt was just slow coming off surgery?"

On one hand, you really should take care of Joe Marciano's situation, it's of the utmost importance that you come to a resolution on his status before you move on to planning the offseason. On the other hand, Bob McNair really hates it when his employees don't deliver instant results.

-- CALL JOHN MCCLAIN (turn to page [39])
-- TALK TO GENERAL MANAGER RICK SMITH ABOUT IT (turn to page [17])
-- CONFRONT JOE MARCIANO (turn to page [44])
-- CHECK OUT FAN MESSAGE BOARDS TO GAUGE THEIR REACTION TO MARCIANO REMAINING EMPLOYED (turn to page [8])
-- FIRE JOE MARCIANO (turn to page [11])

[37]JOE HAS COMPROMISING PICTURES OF THAT CARIBBEAN VACATION WHERE YOU AND BOB MCNAIR SODOMIZED 30 MIDGETS

Oh, right. That thing.

Joe Marciano remains special teams coordinator, to the utter exasperation of your fan base.

[39] CALL JOHN MCCLAIN

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz..................

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz............

-- TALK TO GENERAL MANAGER RICK SMITH ABOUT IT (turn to page [17])
-- CONFRONT JOE MARCIANO (turn to page [44])
-- CHECK OUT FAN MESSAGE BOARDS TO GAUGE THEIR REACTION TO MARCIANO REMAINING EMPLOYED (turn to page [8])
-- FIRE JOE MARCIANO (turn to page [11])

[44] CONFRONT JOE MARCIANO

You tread carefully into the hallway to find Joe Marciano's office door open, and an eerie green light emanating from it.

"I've been expecting you, Gary." Marciano has his back turned to you, and only two chairs in front of his desk separate you from him and whatever he is looking at.

"Gary, you seem to have picked up some bad ideas lately. I know you think my special teams unit struggled, but they were just busy preparing ... FOR THE TAKEOVER OF THE WORLD."

You make your confused face at him, but nobody can tell because you are only capable of making two faces: tight-lipped Kubiak and partially-smiling Kubiak.

Joe turns towards you holding the game ball you gave him following the division-clinching win against the Colts in Week 15.

"Look into the ball, Gary. Look into the ball and see your future."

-- STARE INTO THE BALL (turn to page [3])
-- TRY TO GRAB THE FOOTBALL (turn to page [24])
-- TURN AWAY FROM THE BALL AND TRY TO TALK TO JOE (turn to page [48])

[48] TURN AWAY FROM THE BALL AND TRY TO TALK TO JOE

You really dig deep into your emotions, imploring to Joe in as many as ten words that he's a battle-fighter, and that battle-fighters stick together, but that you really need to discuss what happened at the end of the season.

Marciano begins to have a pained expression on his face as the concentration needed to hold the ball in place breaks.

"Gary," he says, "I can't believe you were so patient there. This is a new side of you that I've never seen before. It's going to make a fitting headline ... on your tombstone!"

Marciano cradles the ball between his hands, as we all know that he doesn't teach the proper way to carry a football based on his tutelage of a few of his pupils, and approaches you.

-- IF YOU HAVE THE SCRIPT FOR THE UPCOMING FIGHT (turn to page [26])
-- IF YOU DO NOT HAVE THE SCRIPT FOR THE UPCOMING FIGHT (turn to page [50])

[50] YOU DO NOT HAVE THE SCRIPT FOR THE UPCOMING FIGHT

Marciano draws super-human speed and strength from the ball, then uses it to punch you in the face seven times in a row. You don't block any of them, as you never saw them coming. Your nose begins to bleed as he steps over your chest, kicking you in the ribs. You begin to black out, but suddenly hear a voice.

Hey reader, this is the author. Did you really pick the part where you didn't have the script? Are you really that devoted to this Choose Your Own Adventure? That'd almost be flattering if it wasn't so stupid. I mean look, I loved these things when I was a kid, but it becomes pretty clear at times that you have to have a certain object to advance the game towards the better endings. If you don't have it, and you don't want to waste another 20 minutes (or in this case two minutes) going through the entire story again, just lie! Nobody's judging you.

Well, okay, I'm probably judging you. But I was already going to be doing that either way.

I did you a favor and put this section right below the section where you made the wrong choice. That way, we can hurry you through to the exciting conclusion. Or, if you want to play it straight, you can hit "home" and start all over again. I'm just trying to save you some time here.

Oh right, and Gary never wakes up from this blackout. Dies, Marciano replaces him, the team continues its ways of rewarding people without merit, etc.

Your life and your head coaching duties end here.

The Replacement Safety Dance

2013-03-14T15:45:06Z

If you are a Texans fan, you likely remember that a lot of pieces had to walk last offseason. Mario Williams, Eric Winston, DeMeco Ryans (traded), Mike Brisiel, Jason Allen, Joel Dreessen, and so on. This, unfortunately, is part of the cycle that you run on when you're a competitive team. You can't keep everybody. You identify your core players, and the rest you have to let move on while you rely on the youth to come in and replace them.

This offseason was a little different, though. The cap situation wasn't quite as bad as it had been in 2011, and the players set to hit free agency were not quite as important, with one glaring exception. (Aside: the idea that this cap would stop a team from keeping a player they really felt good about is blown way out of proportion. The cap is there to keep teams from keeping players that they feel are their ninth or tenth best players.) Connor Barwin still oozes talent, but was coming off a down year. James Casey has an incredible amount of potential as a matchup weapon, but wasn't fully utilized by Houston's coaching staff. And, mostly, it was littered with guys like Alan Ball or Tim Dobbins or Justin Forsett. Nice guys to have around as backups, but not anybody irreplaceable.

However, Glover Quin was both extremely productive and played a highly important role in the Wade Phillips scheme. His agent's assertion that he left without a contract offer frightens me a little bit. I'm not saying that Quin is an "elite" safety, and I understand that if fans, analysts, or fan-analysts are likely to misjudge one type of NFL player, it's a safety. He's not going to keep Jimmy Graham on lock down. But players with Quin's skill set are rare in the NFL. A safety that has corner experience and can play as a linebacker in a dime formation is not an easy commodity to dredge up. Quin tackled above his weight, blitzed fairly well off the edge, and wasn't easy to fool on play-action.

I can understand that he wasn't a core player for Rick Smith. What I can't understand is ... why? The contract that he signed with Detroit was not excessive, and Quin has been very durable.The Texans must continually funnel money to the core of the team, and contracts will eventually be discussed for Brian Cushing (hey, speaking of injury-prone!) and J.J. Watt, but I would question any logic that didn't see Quin as a core member.

I'm trying to let the process play out before I jump too far ahead of myself. I really am. Maybe that money is to be spent on a move that we did not see coming at all. Maybe we'll find ourselves with a second receiver that we actually like -- one that isn't a rookie, even.

But look, this non-move, it troubles me. It troubles me because I am a long-time Texans fan. I know we have had a lot of new posters jump on to the site in the past couple of years, and some of them have not been Texans fans that long. What I am getting at is: the idea of being unsettled at safety scares the ever-living-bejeezus out of me.

From 2002-2010, the Texans fielded, by my logic, precisely one safety that could be deemed better than adequate -- converted cornerback Marcus Coleman. They relied on a series of stopgap measures and failed prospects. Guys like C.C. Brown and Glenn Earl. Eugene Wilson and Matt Stevens. Eric Brown. Will Demps. Just bringing these names up invokes memories of countless post routes that Peyton Manning stuck against the Texans in blowouts. In my mind, anyway.

Rick Smith was given a mandate to fix this secondary -- or else -- in the 2011 offseason. He signed a credible safety in Danieal Manning. He signed Johnathan Joseph and moved Quin to the other safety spot. You know what those moves did? They worked. It didn't lead to a perfect season or anything, but the amount of times the Texans' secondary made me want to kill myself in-game dropped from roughly 829 in 2010 to about 24 in 2011.

Now it's 2013. Manning is getting a little long in the tooth and coming off his worst season in Houston. Ed Reed is coming in for a visit today. I have nothing against Ed Reed as a player. I think there's a wide-range of probabilities on how you should expect a 34 year old safety with his pedigree to perform. Maybe there's a 10 percent chance he is more "productive" than Quin and a 25 percent chance that he is able to perform at the same level. Unfortunately, he's also tended to play hurt over the past few seasons. And, you know, he's a 34 year old safety who can lose what's remaining of his range at any minute. He's a short-term solution. He might be a better one than the Texans have ever bothered to chase, because they are better than they've ever been, but conceptually it's a move that goes back to the thinking of 2010 and before.

I'm not bothered by that potential switch from a production standpoint. I'm bothered by it because the Texans have a) shown very little interest in drafting safeties with high-round picks, b) have zero long-term safeties on the roster that have any appreciable promise, and c) just let the only player they'd ever developed who'd been good at the position walk out the door. Keep in mind that this is coming at a time when the passing game has continued to grow more and more important in the NFL. Good safety play is becoming pivotal in the face of hybrid tight ends and spread attacks. If you can play a credible safety that can also tackle solidly, you've got a schematic advantage. Teams don't line up base packages where they target your two corners exclusively very often anymore -- and they definitely will be trying to avoid that against Joseph and Kareem Jackson. Neglecting to keep good safeties around those two is a move that, to me, harkens back to the NFL of the 1990s.

And when, hypothetically, Ed Reed walks out that door in a year or two, who plays then? The Eugene Wilson of 2015? I've seen that season before. Maybe I've seen it so much that I'm hypersensitive to this particular concern, but I don't have any interest in seeing it again.

Not keeping Glover Quin is a mistake in my mind, and I am highly suspicious of the logic that led to the Texans not even offering him a contract. I hope I am wrong.

Gary Kubiak, Empty Backfields, And You

2013-02-19T15:20:04Z

It's third-and-1 on the Cincinnati 18, with 51 seconds left in the first quarter. The Texans are driving, threatening for their second score of the game.

Arian Foster goes into motion towards the outside hash, leaving the backfield empty.

If you are anything like me, this idea drives you up the wall. I don't care that the Texans were able to get a first down on this particular play (a Matt Schaub dive, which is a play Kubiak calls once in an Albert Haynesworth-sized moon). Removing the threat of your Pro Bowl running back taking the ball behind an offensive line with the likes of Duane Brown and Chris Myers on it just feels incredibly counter-intuitive. Passing it through my video game filter, it's kind of like playing an RPG and making all of your characters be bards -- sure, it might work, but why be so cute about it? Schaub's ability to stand and deliver under pressure is oft-criticized (if not entirely fair), and with the Texans possessing fewer than three receivers who can beat press-man coverage, it just seems like Bad Idea Jeans.

So once again I fired up the handy-dandy Football Outsiders' play-by-play spreadsheet and looked at the entirety of the 2012 season. Since I was only trying to prove things about the Texans, I didn't pull out the league for comparison like I did in last week's post. This is all Texans-related data.

Of the plays Football Outsiders charted for Houston, the Texans had a running back out wide on a pass play 37 times. That means we are working with a sample of about 6.3 percent of all of their passing downs on the season. In other words: we are going to be running into small sample sizes again. There were another four or five run plays with a running back out wide, but I'm going to ignore them like Kubiak ignored the idea of putting Ben Tate and Foster in the same backfield after trying it one time in Week 1.
Of those 37 plays, only 13 of them were "successful" plays by FO definitions. (On first down, 40 percent of needed yards for a first down. On second down, 60 percent of needed yards for a first down. On third or fourth down, 100 percent of needed yards for a first down.) That's a success rate of 35 percent. They averaged 4.9 yards per play on these throws.
Breaking it down a little further, the Texans were 4-of-18 converting first downs or touchdowns on third down passing out of this package. At this point we're into major small sample size territory, but just to state them for the record: the Texans averaged 5.8 yards per pass on third down with a running back out wide. They also averaged 1.6 yards per pass on second down, and 8.4 yards per pass on first down under the same conditions.
Now, for the part that really rankled me: the Texans did do poorly on third-and-short (I'm going with third-and-6 or fewer yards to go) when they put a running back out wide. However, it's hard to get too fussed up about it because it only happened six times over the course of the entire season. They were one-of-six converting those opportunities.The surprising part was that when I went back and looked at this in 2011, seeking a bigger sample size, the Texans actually got a first down or touchdown on seven-of-12 third-and-short throws that season. In fact, while it happened on second down, you may remember this play that occurred with Foster going out wide:

It was a pretty good play. Overall, the Texans were successful on 19-of-40 pass plays with a running back out wide in 2011.

How about the idea that the Texans did this because they weren't very good running the ball on third down? Of the Texans' 68 third-down runs last season, only 26 of them were first downs or touchdowns. That's a success rate of 38 percent. Not much better than they did by putting someone out wide. However, if you remember what we talked about last week, you'll see that a lot of those came on third-and-long for some asinine reason. If we limit ourselves to the same third-and-6 or fewer threshold we used above, the Texans succeeded on 25 of their 45 carries. That's a much more respectable looking 55 percent. It's also a higher success rate than Foster's 47 percent season average, meaning that the Texans actually did slightly better running on third down when they actually had a prayer in hell of converting. (For the record, the overall success rate on third-and-short -- runs and passes -- was 51 percent.)

So what do I glean from the numbers? That as much as the idea of this play-call is aesthetically unpleasing to me, it's really not that big of a deal. Sure, I'd rather that it happened on one of every 40 passes instead of one of every 20 passes, but factoring in game theory and the idea that you want to make your opponent prepare for something, it's probably not something worth making a huge fuss about. When you bring in the facts that (a) they were actually pretty successful with it in 2011 and (b) we're working with incredibly small sample sizes, going one-of-six is not a totally crazy result that spells out doom and gloom for any who would dare run the play.

That said, it's still a stupid play that I hate and want to die, and I will still harp on it every time it doesn't work because WHY ARE YOU LETTING THE DEFENSE KNOW AHEAD OF TIME THAT THEY DON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THE SECOND-BEST SKILL POSITION PLAYER YOU HAVE VERY MUCH AT ALL?

But, from a purely analytical perspective, it's a functional -- if not phenomenal -- package in Houston's offense. The bashing we gave it in Hair Of The Dog all season was probably unwarranted.

Just don't ask me to be logical about it. That's all I ask.

Third-Down Give-Up Draws, Gary Kubiak, And You

2013-02-11T16:00:07Z

Last season (I hated writing those words), it almost became a running joke amongst Battle Red Blog staffers that in any third-and-long situation, the Texans would turn to the draw because ... uh, well, nobody really knows. At first it seemed like it was because the defense was dominant, then later it happened because of the illusion that the defense was still dominant. Or something like that.

Either way, I spent about an hour in the handy dandy Football Outsiders spreadsheet today. Here's what I can tell you about third-down give-up draws, Gary Kubiak, and you.

First, I sampled the entire NFL season. This is every third-and-long (for my purposes, I'm using third-and-7 or longer) down for the entire NFL:

There were 3,289 total third-and-long attempts by an offense this season. 257 of them were rushes. That's 7.8%.
Of those 257 rushing plays on third-and-long, 27 of them resulted in a first down or touchdown. That's a success rate of ... 10.8%
The other 3,032 plays were either passes or scrambles. 28.3% of them resulted in first downs or touchdowns.
Finally, we account for the fact that passing has the potential to lead to a more negative play. On third-and-long, there were 83 non-Hail Mary interceptions and 272 sacks (or fumbles on scrambles). That's a negative-play percentage of 12.2%

Now we have our baselines. Let's look at how Dr. Kubiak managed things:

The Texans faced 101 third-and-long situations. 23 of them were runs. That rate of 22% is nearly triple the league-average rate. A better way to say that? The Texans called nearly 9% of all third-and-long runs in the entire league last year.
On those 23 third-and-long runs, the Texans converted ... one first down. That's a success rate of: 4.3%.
On the other 78 third-and-long pass plays ~~or Matt Schaub scramb~~--- hahaha no, just pass plays -- the Texans converted a first down or touchdown on 21 plays. Success rate: 26.9%.
And then we hit the negative plays. Schaub threw three interceptions and was sacked four times on those unsuccessful plays. Negative-play percentage: 8.9%

It was hard to understand the rationale behind these moves before I did the research. Looking at more evidence just made it even more puzzling. Schaub did not have an inordinately poor rate of success on third down (over the course of the entirety of the season, anyway), and he was actually less likely to take a negative play than the average quarterback. Moreover, the Texans were extraordinarily terrible on their third-and-long runs. Small sample size theater, sure, but that's the nature of situational NFL stats.

And if we apply actual game theory and logic to this -- shouldn't a better defense make you want to take more risks on offense? Despite the fact that the Wade Phillips defense got plastered by New England twice and Green Bay once, it was easily the better unit over the course of the season. Leaning on that unit to bail out the offense could have enabled Houston to take more risks -- and risks don't have to be fourth-and-2 on your own 40, they can be as simple as "actually throwing the ball." It's allowed in the rules and everything.

2011 Shadow Draft In Review

2013-01-29T12:00:10Z

It's the end of January in Houston: 30-degree lows are becoming a distant memory and Texans fans are talking about the draft. While Mr. Brett Kollmann does yeoman's work on the tape-grinding circuit, I am going into the past -- to the Shadow Draft Texans, specifically -- to see how they did.

As Tim always says, block quotes and whiskey make the world go round. I don't think I can place any pictures of whiskey bottles in this post without SBN's legal team coming down on the site with the full weight of frumpiness that their position maintains, so you'll have to settle for the former.

If you're unfamiliar with the concept of a shadow draft, it was popularized by John Sickels of Minor League Ball. Essentially, you pick at exactly the spots your team picks in the draft, and you aren't able to move down or up on your own. It is taken for granted in my version that, due to your general familiarity with the draft process, you are aware of what players are going to be off the board by your next pick. Thus, you don't get stuck picking someone rounds too early. All players signed or traded for by the team are at your disposal, and you can't keep players that leave.

Now, on to comparing my picks to the actual Houston selections...

1-11 -- Texans picked J.J. Watt, I picked Robert Quinn.

Wow, I've made a huge mistake.

Actually, I just followed faulty logic. I thought Houston was moving forward with the whole "Mario Williams is a defensive end" idea at the time of the pick, and that meant that putting a first-round pick into that position was the definition of insane. That'll learn me.

Quinn, at least, has validated my high opinion of him. 10.5 sacks for the Rams this year after spending his rookie season being in and out of the lineup. That doesn't make up for the fact that I passed on the best defensive player in the NFL, but at least I didn't really blow the pick. I probably would have taken Watt had I known that the Texans were going to need a starting end. Well, or Prince Amukamara. See, Quinn doesn't sound so bad now, does he?

2-42 -- Texans picked Brooks Reed, I picked Rahim Moore.

Moore is yet another safety that I overvalued, though it turns out I didn't do too poorly here. You may remember Moore from such plays as "The Time Joe Flacco Hit Jacoby Jones for a Stunning Deep Touchdown." He played the role of burn victim.

But he actually didn't have a terrible season overall. The Broncos had a much-improved pass defense and he was a big factor in that. I'm not saying he's better than Danieal Manning as of now, but I think it's fairly close. It's really kind of amazing how this middle stretch of the second round played out in retrospect. Here are the picks between Brooks Reed and Brandon Harris:

Rahim Moore

There's not a single player in this pack that I consider a star, and a lot of them have already been injury or talent busts. How many random sections of the second round can you say that about? Ijalana hasn't played a snap. Vereen is stuck behind Stevan Ridley. Jarrett has already been released. Bowers fell on talent and has continued to be hurt. I had a Stephen Paea mancrush and he's played well, but he's not an impact player right now or anything. I guess the best of the bunch is Smith, and I still see him as someone who could use some consistency.

Anyway, I think Reed has lived up to the expectations I had of his pick. He's not a pass-rusher, he's a jack-of-all trades linebacker, and I wouldn't want to spend a second-round pick on one of those. I would rather go for the game-changing safety. (Well, he did technically change the Baltimore-Denver game...)

2-60 -- Texans picked Brandon Harris, I picked Martez Wilson.

I actually came into this thinking that Wilson would be a Mo linebacker at the second level; that's where he started in college, and that's what his statistics led me to believe he'd be good at in the pros. Since I had passed on Brian Cushing in the first year of Shadow Draft Land, I thought Wilson could help take his place. Instead, he was groomed as a strong-side linebacker for the Gregg Williams Saints, then turned into a pass-rusher for the (admittedly desperate) Spagnuolo Saints. I don't even know what to make of him. He's definitely flashed talent as a pass rusher, and it's easy enough to just throw him in the outside linebacker role here and call it a day. I just wonder how bad he must have been in coverage to earn that shift.

Hey, at least he's doing better than Brandon Harris. And I loved the Harris pick -- I was big on him coming out. He wasn't awful in his limited time this year, but you would really have hoped for more from someone with his pedigree. I have to move on from this paragraph quickly before it's flagged for holding.

Kicking myself for not being in on Randall Cobb. I thought he was too much of a gimmick player coming out. Chris Culliver, K.J. Wright, Jurrell Casey, and Chris Conte were among the other top players between this pick and Houston's next one way at the end of the fourth round.

4-127 -- Texans picked Roc Carmichael, I picked Davon House.

This is one of the few picks I can remember that I've made in the process where I liked it better when I made it and was never given a reason to waiver on it. Whether you want to blame the depth at cornerback or the injuries, Carmichael has made next to no impact for the Texans. House has fought his own injuries, but when healthy he's also seen plenty of the field for a Green Bay team that has plenty of depth at corner. I don't necessarily think I have a future superstar, but I do like his chances of being a solid second banana, a la what Kareem Jackson finally became this year.

And at the very least, he's way better than Carmichael has been so far.

5-144 -- Texans picked Shiloh Keo, I picked Jacquizz Rodgers.

Keo has been a liability as a backup safety so far -- essentially a special-teams only player through two years of his career. Rodgers has not been the kind of dynamo I expected him to be (granted, the Atlanta offensive line is not a great run-blocking unit) so far, but he's been solid in the passing game and has generally been a decent pass-blocker despite his size. I took him here because I did not draft Ben Tate the year before.

I want to offer a thought exercise to anyone who considered trading Tate for a second-round pick a bad idea last offseason: even if Arian Foster isn't supposed to be as much of a workhorse as he was this year, how much value would you attach to 100 carries of Tate over 100 carries of Rodgers? I definitely acknowledge that Tate is the better back -- how much does that matter to you? For me, it might be worth an extra fifth-rounder. A second-rounder? I'll cash Tate in for that every chance I get, and I would've told you the same thing last offseason.

That said, Denarius Moore is looking like a better pick than Rodgers. Inconsistent, but he has the physical tools to be the kind of receiver Houston needs.

5-152 -- Texans picked T.J. Yates, I picked Chris Carter.

Pretty even here. Yates is a replacement-level quarterback from what we've seen, and Houston has given zero indication that they see him as a long-term heir to Matt Schaub, beyond the fact that they haven't brought anyone else in. Which, in my mind, is more of an endorsement of Schaub than of Yates. Carter has been a replacement-level outside linebacker. He finds pressure, but he isn't generating sacks by the bushel. He would probably be on the roster bubble.

And who did we both miss on? Richard Sherman. No big deal. I'm also a big Pernell McPhee fan.

7-214 -- Texans picked Derek Newton, I picked Greg Romeus.

The Texans win by default: Newton actually is a roster player, even if he is stretched as a starting tackle. Romeus is an injury casualty after tearing his ACL and MCL last preseason. But, even then, I guess the explosiveness he had never recovered from his college injuries, since he was a roster bubble guy.

7-254 -- Texans picked Cheta Ozougwu, I picked Mark Herzlich.

Herzlich will never be a star, but I maintain that he's capable of a Tim Dobbins role if he can stay healthy. Ozougwu has been an NFL irrelevant.

2012 Shadow Draft In Review

2013-01-21T14:00:10Z

If you're unfamiliar with the concept of a shadow draft, it was popularized by John Sickels of Minor League Ball. Essentially, you pick at exactly the spots your team picks in the draft, and you aren't able to move down or up on your own. It is taken for granted in my version that, due to your general familiarity with the draft process, you are aware of what players are going to be off the board by your next pick. Thus, you don't get stuck picking someone rounds too early. All players signed or traded for by the team are at your disposal, and you can't keep players that leave.

Now, on to comparing my picks to the actual Houston selections...

1-26 -- Texans picked Whitney Mercilus, I picked Janoris Jenkins.

While I liked Mercilus just fine, my motivation to select a cornerback was mostly just a function of the other picks I'd previously made: Robert Quinn was at outside linebacker and the Shadow Texans passed on Kareem Jackson in 2010. Mercilus showed flashes of pass-rushing potential in year one, but the hurry/sack ratio was a bit out of whack (6 to 11) and he was essentially a zero in run defense. Jenkins had just about the kind of year you'd expect from his college career: playmaking ability (four touchdowns) and off-field issues (deactivated for one game and forced to run sprints with Chris Givens). I didn't chart a lot of Rams games, but I do think that Jenkins is a bit inconsistent on slants and quick-breaking plays. He's got great recovery speed though.

Hard to say what either player will fully become, but I think I've got the high-risk, high-reward guy. Which is exactly what I was aiming for at 26: I wanted to hit a home run.

3-68 -- Texans picked DeVier Posey, I picked Russell Wilson.

This pick worked out pretty well for me.

3-76 -- Texans picked Brandon Brooks, I picked Demario Davis.

Brooks was behind Ben Jones for most of the season, then started to see a bit more playing time down the stretch. The tools are obvious; the question is how much refinement the Texans can cram into him before the 2013 season starts. If he can be just average with technique, he'll be a force to be reckoned with inside, and probably force PRO BOWL GUARD Wade Smith to the bench at some point next season. If he can't, then at least he's still not Antoine Caldwell.

Davis actually didn't see much playing time (about 28 percent of the defensive snaps) with the Jets this year, which is a bit of a surprise given how Rex Ryan was singing his praises for most of training camp. He certainly would've been useful for Houston last year given the gaping wound that was inside linebacker, and he profiles as someone who has the physical tools to be a good dime linebacker in the Wade Phillips scheme. Given the fact that he couldn't even beat out a decrepit Bart Scott for playing time in New York, I'm skeptical that he would've been much help this season. Hey, he did play special teams though!

4-99 -- Texans picked Ben Jones, I picked Bobby Massie.

Put a Kollmann sticker on this pick! Jones worked out fairly well in the run game -- he still does have some issues in pass-protection, but for a fourth-round pick to come in and play a decent guard right away is pretty impressive. He certainly shut me up, as I thought he was the weakest non-kicker pick of the class. I don't know if we're looking at a mainstay or just a solid patch until he gets expensive, but Jones was a quality pick.

Massie was embarrassingly unprepared to pass-protect at right tackle in the NFL. However, down the stretch, he did look much better. Not good, but competent. The jury is out on how good he'll become -- the jury is totally out on most of these picks at this point; they've got just one year under their belts -- but right now I'm having some buyer's remorse on the idea that he could be a plus at tackle.

4-121 -- Texans picked Keshawn Martin, I picked Keshawn Martin.

Sigh. This one didn't work out so well last year. Martin had an abysmal catch rate, looked completely out of sync with the offense, and was caught from behind by Bryan Anger on a return that should have been a touchdown. About the only good memory I have of his first season here was the end around in the first quarter of the Bengals game.

I don't necessarily think it's time to write him off. He still has a lot of the skills necessary to be the kind of slot receiver that Jacoby Jones was not able to be. This is a big offseason for Martin though: there's a lot unsettled at the bottom of that Texans receiving depth chart, and if he doesn't improve he could find himself pigeonholed as "purely a punt returner."

4-126 -- Texans picked Jared Crick, I picked Jared Crick.

Crick picked up most of Tim Jamison's snaps after he went down with a season-ending Achilles injury. He brought almost zero pass rush to the table, but he did bat down a couple of passes and seemed to generally find his run fits. It's hard to say that he did anything to earn a bigger role, but he held his own. There's certainly nothing wrong with this sort of production from a fourth-round rotation end -- I do wish we saw a few more plays of the sort that had scouts thinking he should have been a first-rounder, though.

5-161 -- Texans picked Randy Bullock, I picked Marvin Jones.

Jones, better known as the latest Cincinnati receiver to get a shot at the No. 2 job, was generally competent in his first year. The 56 percent catch rate will need to improve for him to stay on the field, but his problems were the routine catches, not the flashy ones. I still think he has a bit of upside and could be convinced that he's a better long-term receiver than Posey.

Bullock did nothing but make us sad while Blair Walsh, Greg Zuerlein, and Justin Tucker set the league on fire and Shayne Graham routinely landed kickoffs on the 10-yard-line.

6-196 -- Texans picked Nick Mondek, I picked Emmanuel Acho.

Something these guys have in common: neither played an NFL snap in 2012. I knew I should have picked Alfonzo Dennard and not tried to hole-fill. Damnit.

Battle Red Radio: Exit Wounds (8 p.m. CT)

2013-01-15T22:30:06Z

You've seen us write the words, now hear us crack the voices! It's a brand new Battle Red Radio tonight at 8 p.m. CST (note the time change!) as we recap the divisional round loss to the Patriots and speak to the future of the Texans.

Join myself, ~~MDC~~ Brett Kollman, and Chris of Houston Diehards. There will be #SkinEm, there will be discussion of Wade Phillips and his problems with spread attacks, and there will be LOUD VOICES!!!!

We'll be taking questions in the middle of the show. Please pepper us with them in the comments, and I will distribute them randomly to whoever I think will do the "best" job answering them.

Here's a direct link to the show if the embed link below does not let you listen live at 8 p.m. CST. While you wait, you can catch up on the last version of this podcast, which definitely happened.

P.S.: This show will probably have cursing, and will probably not be suitable for younger audiences.

Listen to internet radio with Battle Red Radio on Blog Talk Radio