Thank Aaron Gleeman for the inspiration here. His look back at the Johan Santana trade is the reason why we are going to revisit Roy Oswalt's time with Philadelphia to see who got what in that blockbuster trade.
First up, here's the trade:
Houston then shipped Anthony Gose to Toronto for first baseman/left fielder Brett Wallace and also shipped a bunch of money to Philadelphia to pay most of Oswalt's salary both in 2010 and last season.
Oswalt then started 35 games for Philadelphia over the next season and a half. In 2010, he posted a 1.74 ERA down the stretch in 13 appearances and 12 starts. That was good for 2.0 fWAR that season. He also started four postseason games for the Phillies, allowing eight runs in 19 2/3 innings with 19 strikeouts and four walks. He went 1-1 in those starts as the Phillies lost to the Giants in the NLCS.
Last season, Oswalt suffered through an injury plagued campaign that saw him start just 23 games and amass 139 innings. He went 9-10 with a 3.69 ERA, good for 2.5 fWAR. That means he accumulated 4.5 fWAR over two seasons with Philadelphia.
Let's compare that to the three players Houston received. Brett Wallace played in 166 games after the trade, hitting .248/.323/.354 in 538 plate appearances. That's good for 1.2 fWAR, though Houston controls Wallace for four more seasons.
Pitcher J.A. Happ made 41 starts over the past few seasons with Houston. He went 11-19 over that span with a 4.85 ERA in 228 1/3 innings. That's good for 1.1 fWAR with two more years of team control after 2012. The last player involved has not reached the majors yet, but Villar looks like he could be a top talent and has made some Top 100 prospect lists this season.
The Phillies are still ahead of Houston, getting over 4 fWAR out of Oswalt before he opted for free agency. Houston did not get much out of either Brett Wallace or J.A. Happ, but there is still time there. However, it looks more and more likely that it will fall on Villar to be the lynchpin to this trade. If he can become a solid starter for the Astros, they will do much better.
Of course, he didn't hit in Double-A last year, so there is no guarantee he'll get to that point. If that's the case, chalk this one up as a win for Philly.