Okay, so Baseball America basically agrees that talented California righthander Lucas Giolito's injury will cause his draft stock to fall. Just a little decrease probably rules him out for the top overall pick, but where will he end up?
Well, BA looks at each team's draft spending cap number to see what about $4 million taken out of it would do for the next few rounds. Houston does have the most room by far, but BA makes the point that there are quite a few teams who could grab him and still pay his price.
The real reason why I wanted to discuss this is because it clarifies something about the new CBA. That's how the pools will work, in that teams can spend more on one particular pick, as long as they don't spend more total on the first ten rounds. That means a team can go with reaches in the first or supplemental round and then get fourth-year seniors in the 5th through 10th rounds to save on money.
It's a freer system than I thought and is more of a hard cap than a hard slotting system. Giolito will be a fascinating test case for how it affects prices of prospects this yea