+2
Without Keenum, Cleveland, et al., can the Cougars keep their home winning streak alive? Nothing's outside of the realm of possibility on Saturday, but Dustin doesn't have a good feeling about this one.
Mississippi State running back Vick Ballard ran for 134 yards and three touchdowns as the Bulldogs cruised to a 47-24 victory over the Houston Cougars Saturday night at Robertson Stadium.
Houston quarterback David Piland threw for 301 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in his first career start. Piland is a true freshman from Dallas Southlake Carroll and took the reins from Terrance Broadway, who struggled against Tulane last week.
The Bulldogs took Houston running back Bryce Beall completely out of the game, holding him to 17 yards on eight carries. The Cougars didn’t help themselves throughout the game, finishing with three turnovers compared to none for Mississippi State.
Houston’s leading receiver, James Cleveland, did not play due to suspension.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-2, 1-2 SEC) at Houston Cougars (3-1, 2-0 Conference USA)
Kickoff: Oct. 9, 7 p.m. Central.
TV: CBS College Sports
It's not a conference game. There's no top 25 poll position to lose. The real important game is next week against Rice. By every objective metric, there's not much more than pride on the line when the Houston Cougars take on the Bulldogs of Mississippi State on Saturday.
But then there's the small matter of the streak. UH has won 18 straight contests within the friendly confines of Robertson Stadium, a program record, and the fourth-longest such streak in the nation. In a Cougar season that has seen its share of disappointment, with injuries, suspensions, and a crushing defeat already in the books, nobody wants to lose the streak, especially at the hands of a traditional SEC cellar dweller.
I don't mean to disrespect MSU. An SEC team is an SEC team (unless it's Vanderbilt...they don't count) and I believe that the Bulldogs are on the way up under second-year head coach Dan Mullen. They played competitive games against the likes of LSU and Florida last year, and gave the Cougars all they could handle before the good guys pulled out a 31-24 victory. This year, they have victories over Memphis, Georgia and Alcorn State, and losses to Auburn and LSU.
If there has been one defining characteristic of the first five weeks of the 2010 college football season, it is that it's impossible to know what to expect from one team from one week to the next. UCLA gets slapped around by Kansas State and Stanford, then blows out Houston and Texas-Austin. Tulane struggles to beat a 1-AA opponent, loses a couple of not terribly competitive games, then goes and beats a pretty good Rutgers team on the road. So it feels pointless to use what Team X did against Team Y to predict what it will do against Team Z, but let's do that anyway to try and size up the Bulldogs.
Houston Offense vs Mississippi State Defense
It feels unbelievably strange to state that this is the match-up that concerns me more. With a true freshman at quarterback for the Cougars (whether it be David Piland, Terrance Broadway or both), the Cougars figure to look to the combo of Bryce Beall and Michael Hayes to run the ball early and often. The Bulldog run defense has been stout thus far, however, giving up just 3.6 yards per carry, and not allowing a single 100-yard rusher. (Although that stat is somewhat deceiving. Auburn and LSU combined to rush for 357 yards against the MSU defense, and both averaged over 4 yards per carry.)
If it is Broadway getting the start at QB, there is mixed evidence as to what to expect, should he tuck the ball and run. While talented dual-threat QB Cam Newton of Auburn was held relatively in check, Alcorn's (freshman) quarterback was able to make some plays with his feet, including a 78-yard scamper for six points.
The Bulldog pass defense hasn't blown anybody away thus far. Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray had one of his best games of the year against Mississippi State, and even Alcorn State had some success throwing the ball around last week, to the tune of a 14-for-27 team performance, with 207 yards in the air, a touchdown and no MSU picks. With James Cleveland sitting out due to a team-mandated suspension for UH, it will be up to the rest of the receiving corps to step up. Utilityman Justin Johnson will get a lot of Cleveland's reps, Patrick Edwards is always a threat on the deep ball, and Tyron Carrier is entirely too talented to have only 121 yards receiving so far this year. Dude is absolutely primed for a breakout game. Mississippi State likes to bring pressure on the quarterback, so whoever gets the starting nod for Houston, they'd better be ready to make quick decisions, and trust their receivers to make plays.
So the best case scenario is that Beall and Hayes have some success running the ball, MSU keys on the run, and the extra week of practice reps pays dividends for the new Cougar passer(s). The worst case scenario is that the Bulldogs don't need to load up the box to stop the run, and can sit back and wait for Broadway/Piland to make mistakes. Both of those scenarios are entirely plausible, as is anything in between. I don't even know why you're reading this article, pretty much anything could happen.
Mississippi State Offense vs Houston Defense
The Bulldogs ran up 98 points against the likes of Memphis and Alcorn State. But in three confernce games, MSU managed just 45 total points. The question is, which level of competition will the Cougar defense more closely resemble - the SEC bad boys, or the powderpuffs?
The Cougar defense is no longer the Swiss cheese-resembling unit that lost the team so many games a year ago. On the ground, Houston has allowed 1.1 fewer yards per carry as compared to last year, as well as 1.4 fewer yards allowed per pass attempt. Still, "better than the 2009 Cougar defense" and "good defense" are not synonyms.
Job one will be trying to stop running back Vick Ballard. The JuCo transfer may not quite be Anthony Dixon (1,445 yards rushing, 12 TD last year), but he's doing a pretty good impersonation so far, rolling up eight scores on the ground, and averaging 6.5 yards per carry. But much like the Bulldogs as a whole, the difference in competition has meant absolutely everything for Ballard - he has topped 30 yards rushing just once in three games against opponents not named Memphis or Alcorn State.
The Bulldogs run the ball more than they pass, and while the QB duo of Chris Relf and Tyler Russell has shown some playmaking ability through the air, they have also proven mistake-prone. MSU has thrown at least one interception in every contest this year, including the LSU game, in which Bulldog quarterbacks completed half as many passes (five) to Tiger players as LSU did (ten). If the visiting team can impose its will on the ground, and avoid the turnover bug on Saturday, it could be a long day for the Houston faithful.
Special Teams
While the Coogs are yet to take a kick to the house this season, it seems like only a matter of time, with Patrick Edwards (14.7 yards per return) fielding punts, and Tyron Carrier (five career return TDs) handling kickoffs. Freshman punter Richie Leone has looked like a keeper, averaging 45.8 yards per punt, with four of his 11 punts traveling over 50 yards. Leone and Jordan Mannisto have sent over a third of Houston kickoffs deep for touchbacks, surrendering an average opponents' starting field position of the 23-yard line, a 7-yard improvement over a year ago. Matt Hogan has connected on four of five field goals, missing only a 47-yarder against Tulane. The extra point continues to be a thorn in the Coogs' side, as three freebies have already been missed this year.
Mississippi State's playmakers in the return game are Chad Bumphis and Leon Berry, who scored a 97-yard return against Alcorn State. Punter Heath Hutchins has been solid, if not spectacular, averaging just over 40 yards per punt, but seeing half of his punts fair caught. The Bulldogs have connected on all of their extra point attempts, but are just one-for-three on field goals.
The Bottom Line
Even with the off-week, and even with plenty of talent at receiver and running back, I don't think Houston has the offensive firepower to put up big numbers against a very good Mississippi State defense. And while I applaud the job done by first-year defensive coordinator Brian Stewart, I'm still unconvinced that Houston's defense can win games.
Mississippi State 28
Houston 23
I hope like heck I'm wrong.
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Why Not Utilize Both Piland And Broadway?
It's just like 2007, except the part where it's not.
Once again, the Cougars have an ongoing quarterback controversy playing itself out over the course of the season. However, the answer seems less clear cut than it did back then. In '07, freshman Case Keenum battled sophomore Blake Joseph for the job. For his part, Keenum seemed infinitely more comfortable in the pocket, and just generally looked like a quarterback. Joseph was notoriously incapable of handling a pass rush, but had a stronger arm. Keenum simply ran the offense much better, but this was the "Art Briles is a demi-god" phase in Cougar fandom, so if Art keeps running Blake out there, we reasoned, there must be something to it, right?
Obviously, hindsight is 20-20, and in 2010, our fuzzy vision is based on about a game apiece of true freshmen David Piland and Terrance Broadway. Here's what we've seen so far:
David Piland
The bad: A couple of stare-downs of receivers in the Mississippi State game led to a couple of picks, including the interception return for a touchdown at the end of the first half that put the game out of reach. His 30-for-57 completion ratio was less than ideal, but this was based on a lot of balls thrown away when MSU's pass rush beat the Cougar O-line, and the Houston receiving corps (sans James Cleveland) didn't present any good options.
The good: He put a lot of passes in receivers' hands. There were a number of Cougar drops that made Piland's final numbers not indicative of how accurate he was. He showed good pocket awareness, and didn't take any sacks. Aside from the picks, he did a good job of going through his progressions.
Terrance Broadway
The bad: Broadway has looked nervous in the pocket on occasion. He took five sacks against Tulane, a far less talented defensive front than Mississippi State. Broadway connected on 19-of-28 against the Green Wave, but pass accuracy was an issue on balls thrown downfield. It's also worth noting that Broadway had the benefit of a run game that was consistently moving the ball effectively, as opposed to Piland, who got zero help on the ground.
The good: He has you-have-to-see-it-to-believe-it speed. Even against top competition like UCLA and Mississippi State, there have been defenders who thought they had a bead on Broadway, but just got outrun. Despite his passing troubles against Tulane, his touchdown throws against the Bruins and Bulldogs came on two of the prettiest fade passes I've seen from a Cougar quarterback in some time.
So here's the part where I suggest that the Cougar coaching staff might be best served to use both quarterbacks, and the part where the Cougar fan base starts (continues?) to think that I am an idiot.
I'm not suggesting that we have another situation like '07, where the starting job was won and lost every couple of quarters. But why not just announce that you're going to a two-quarterback system for the time being? Why not give opposing defenses two different looks to gameplan for?
One of the big fears whenever you have a quarterback controversy is that if you change starters from one game to the next (or within a game) you'll end up hurting a kid's confidence. You don't want your QB worrying that he's gonna wind up on the bench if he throws a pick. But if you tell both guys that they're both going to play, coming out of the game becomes just the other guy's turn, instead of a permanent benching.
Ultimately, it's better to settle on one quarterback. I'm not suggesting that Piland and Broadway share snaps for the next three and a half years. But practice can only tell you so much. In practice, Blake Joseph was as good a quarterback as Case Keenum*. But guys react differently when the lights come on. Both of these guys deserve a chance to prove themselves in game situations.
*As an afterword, please don't take this article as an attack on Blake Joseph. He's a talented individual, and a team player. When it became clear he wasn't going to win the job back from Keenum in '08, he moved to receiver to find a way to help out the team. I have nothing but respect for him.
Oct 10 1:18p by Dustin Rensink - 2 comments