Week Eleven NFL Picks For Texans-Jets: Oh Sure, This Is Fair

SB Nation Houston's coverage of the Texans-Jets game on November 21st, 2010.

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Week Eleven NFL Fantasy Advice For Texans vs. Jets - It's Your Turn, Mr. Sanchez

START 'EM IF YOU GOT 'EM
Matt Schaub - Check his status on Sunday morning, but he should start, according to head coach Gary Kubiak. Whether you believe in the Jets' 20th-ranked pass defense or trust that the Texans will be throwing a lot because they'll be playing from behind, Schaub will need to throw the ball, and the Jets secondary has allowed 13 passing touchdowns.
Mark Sanchez - Yes, he's only completed 54.7% of his passes, but Sanchez is taking on the league's worst secondary. This could be a day where he completes 60-70% of his passes for 250+ yards and 2+ touchdowns.
Dustin Keller, Braylon Edwards, and Santonio Holmes - The three leading receivers for the New York Jets should benefit from the porous Houston secondary. In particular, Keller could have a big day as the Texans give up easy out routes to tight ends on a regular basis. All three could score a touchdown and/or catch a few long passes.
LaDainian Tomlinson - He has slowed up in recent weeks with his rushing numbers, but he leads the Jets in receptions as they prepare to face a secondary that makes everyone look like All-Pros.

YOU CAN PLAY THEM BUT THERE IS RISK
Andre Johnson - He's a stud, and you always start studs that you spent a first-round pick on. However, Jets CB Darrelle Revis held him to 4 catches and 35 yards in their 2009 match-up, so Johnson could be held in check again.
Kevin Walter & Jacoby Jones - If Johnson is covered then these two should find open lanes as Football Outsiders ranks the Jets among the league's worst at covering non-#1 receivers. However, they've been inconsistent so it's a cautious recommendation.
Arian Foster - The dual-threat running back is another stud, but the Jets rush defense is dominant. They're top-five in yards per game and second in rush DVOA. Against the highly-rated San Diego defense, Foster had a huge game, but he also struggled against the other top-five rated New York defense. It's hard to predict what he'll do.
Shonn Greene - He's only a rushing threat and is behind LT. The Texans are vulnerable up the middle, but the Jets could be doing a lot of passing on the vulnerable Houston secondary.
New York's Defense - Great defense, but the Texans could put enough points on the board to make other options attactive.

AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE
Owen Daniels - He likely will not play on Sunday.
Houston's Defense - If they're on your roster then you're probably not watching your fantasy team.

DON'T SLEEP ON...

James Casey. Over the past two weeks, Casey has shown flashes while Daniels has been out with a hamstring injury. The Jets are hit-or-miss with tight end coverage, and Casey seems like more of a pass catcher than Joel Dreessen. If you're in a bind for a tight end, Casey may be a decent pick up.

For more on the Texans, check out Battle Red Blog.

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At 4-5, Texans Playoff Hopes Hanging By A Thread

In most seasons, a 4-5 record through nine games usually means no playoffs. With the Indianapolis Colts being so dominant in recent years, 4-5 definitely has spelled doom in terms of winning the AFC South. Most pundits have written off the Houston Texans' playoff chances, along with some of their fans. But there is still reason to keep hope alive, at least for another week. Since the current playoff system was instituted in 1990, 15 teams have qualified for the playoffs after posting a losing record through its first nine games. They are....

YEAR

TEAM

RECORD AFTER NINE GAMES

FINAL RECORD

ADVANCED TO

1990

Houston

4-5

9-7

 

Wild Card

1990

New Orleans

4-5

8-8

 

Wild Card

1992

San Diego

4-5

11-5

 

Divisional

1994

Detroit

4-5

9-7

 

Wild Card

1994

New England

3-6

10-6

 

Wild Card

1995

Detroit

3-6

10-6

 

Wild Card

1995

San Diego

4-5

9-7

 

Wild Card

1996

Jacksonville

3-6

9-7

 

AFC Championship

1997

Detroit

4-5

9-7

 

Wild Card

2001

Tampa Bay

4-5

9-7

 

Wild Card

2002

Cleveland

4-5

9-7

 

Wild Card

2002

NY Jets

4-5

9-7

 

Divisional

2003

Green Bay

4-5

10-6

 

Divisional

2008

San Diego

4-5

8-8

 

Divisional

2009

NY Jets

4-5

9-7

 

AFC Championship

 

 

It's an incredibly safe bet that an NFC team currently with a sub-.500 record will make the playoffs. San Francisco or St. Louis are in the mix, and I wouldn't count out the Washington Redskins just yet either despite how poorly they've played the past two weeks.

In the AFC, San Diego looks like they're going to pull off their perennial comeback act and win their division. Outside of the Chargers, Houston is the only other team with an outside shot. They're not out of it by any stretch of the imagination in the AFC South, and if they can somehow win their remaining six AFC games, they might be in contention for a Wild Card even.

First things first though, and that's winning against a very solid and confident Jets team.

s

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Amon Gordon Signed To Practice Squad

According to Nick Scurfield’s Twitter, the Texans have signed DT Amon Gordon to the practice squad.

Gordon, 29, was originally a draft pick of the Cleveland Browns in the fourth round, out of Stanford. He had played in three games this year with the Titans before starting an all-too familiar practice squad shuffle. He’s a seven-team vet with 31 career tackles and one forced fumble.

If the Texans ever altered their terrible defense, Gordon wouldn’t have much in front of him. Unfortunately for him, he weighs over 300 pounds and isn’t young enough to blame his problems on something else, which puts him behind the eight ball as far as possibly playing for the Texans this year.

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Week Eleven NFL Picks For Texans-Jets: Oh Sure, This Is Fair

Well, that nice little run of the Texans being relevant AFC South contenders is over. Here comes the part where gamblers talk about us in hushed tones. "Gosh, they're so good, if only they could play defense." That sort of thing. The Texans (4-5) will drag their mediocrity to New Jersey to take on the New York Jets (7-2) on another 12 PM CT start time on CBS. Dan Dierdorf and Greg Gumbel will get the call, so look for Mark Sanchez to be lionized by the second quarter by people who don't understand how bad the Texans defense is. Your usual suspects will pick up the radio: Sports Radio 610 AM, 100.3 KILT FM and La Tremenda 1010 AM if you prefer Spanish.

The Jets have actually underperformed defensively this season. Darrelle Revis has struggled to stay healthy and that has a put a big dent in their pass defense. He should be good for this game, however, so downgrade expectations for Andre Johnson if you can. They've been a bit lucky this year, and if the Texans weren't on pace to become the worst NFL defense of all-time, I'd think about saying the Jets were more vulnerable than they were last year. Oh right, also they went into Reliant and smoked the Texans in Week One last year. But they had Kris Jenkins around for that game, and he won't be on the field this Sunday as he's out for the year. Chris Myers will still get beaten, but likely by someone else.

The Expert Picks are as follows (this will be brief): every writer at CBSYahoo!, and ESPN who has been asked to make picks so far has picked the Jets except for Clark Judge, who may have found the pick'em procedure confusing and clicked the wrong web button. 

The Jets are -6.5 point favorites. 

For more on the Texans, check out Battle Red Blog.

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