Dunta Robinson Is Not Giving The Texans A Third Round Pick

The NFL's awarding of compensation picks for free agents lost is football's version of the Rubik's Cube. Nobody knows how they're configured and goshdanged if we have the effort to go figure it out and come up with a projection! Well, except one person did. Before the season ever started. But instead of going and researching this, we get tidbits like this from the Chronicle's beat writer. 

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[Comment From Bombay]
John, do we get an extra pick from the Dunta signing? If so, what round and when. Thank you and appreciate your work.

John McClain: Thanks. They should get a good pick, hopefully, their first third-round compensatory pick. That would come in handy, wouldn it?

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It sure would! But it's not founded in anything close to reality. Before the season, Battle Red Blog user SATexan used the projection system and decided that it was extremely unlikely the Texans would be rewarded with a high pick for losing Dunta Robinson. Why? Because we also signed Neil Rackers and Wade Smith last year. The gist of it is that the system works like this: 

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For example, consider a team that loses one qualifying player whose value falls in the third round and another qualifying player whose value falls in the sixth round but signs a qualifying player whose value falls in the third round. That team would receive a sixth-round comp pick because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the higher-valued player

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Because the Texans signed two free agents that played crucial roles on their team, it's highly unlikely that they will be compensated with much for the loss of Robinson. Maybe they'll be given a pity seventh rounder. Maybe. But that's about the best one could hope for at this point.

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