Lots of reports today about the top prep arm, California high schooler Lucas Giolito, has an elbow injury and may miss the rest of his high school season. According to John Klima at Baseball Beginnings, Giolito's MRI said he only has a sprain which will not require surgery. He's slated to miss 4-6 weeks, which could knock him out for the rest of the high school regular season, but doesn't necessarily rule out the playoffs.â†µ
More and more, I think Giolito has a chance at being drafted No. 1 overall by Houston. However, this throws a (forgive me) curve into things. The reports on his 100 MPH fastball seem like they could be legitimate, but I'm more impressed with what Klima said in this report just before the injury came out.â†µ
Sitting 95-98 on his fastball into the third inning? Yikes. That's real velocity. The bit about losing himself in the change isn't great, but that's fixable. Don't worry as much about that. It's easy to dream on how good Giolito could be with that package.â†µ
I just don't think the Astros will take someone with the kind of risk that Giolito will take with him into the draft. At No. 1, the Astros should be trying to get an impact player but also minimize risk. I still think Giolito goes highly in the draft, just not No. 1 overall. Not right now, at least.