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Week 16 AFC South Schedule & Picks - The Week Where Running Could Decide Everything

Tennessee Titans (6-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (9-5), Noon CT, CBS
The Line: Kansas City -5
The Experts: ESPN votes 7-1 Chiefs, CBS is 5-0 for KC, and Yahoo has 2-0 for the Chiefs with one expert not getting his picks in at the time of this writing.

The Chiefs own the league's best rushing offense (168.6 YPG), and they'll be waiting to run over the average Titans front seven (17th in rush defense). With a potential playoff birth on the line, Arrowhead Stadium should be rocking, and all the posing in the world won't save Tennessee.

The Pick: Titans 20, Chiefs 30

Washington Redskins (5-9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6), Noon CT, FOX
The Line: Jacksonville -7
The Experts: The Jaguars carry ESPN, CBS, and Yahoo in a clean sweep.

Coming off a tough loss at home, the Jaguars top-five rush offense should have their way with Washington's bottom-five rush defense. It's a clear mismatch especially when you add in Mike Shanahan's Donovan McNabb and Rex Grossman fiasco. The Jaguars can run and mask their own defensive deficiencies if they so choose.

The Pick: Redskins 24, Jaguars 31

Houston Texans (5-9) @ Denver Broncos (3-11), 3:05 PM CT, CBS
The Line: Houston -2.5
The Experts: Houston sweeps ESPN 8-0, CBS is 4-1 Texans, and Yahoo is 2-0 for the guys in Liberty White.

Nearly every Houston game follows a similar script: Fall behind by 14-21, stage a second-half comeback, and either give it away in glorious fashion on the last drive of the game or walk off with a crazy win. While I wouldn't be shocked if Sunday was the same way, I don't expect it with a rookie quarterback making his second start.

One day Tim Tebow may be a good NFL quarterback, but I don't see him beating the lowly Texans defense right now. His inexperience should save Houston while the offense should take advantage of the run mismatch between them and the Denver defense.

The Pick: Texans 30, Broncos 17

Indianapolis Colts (8-6) @ Oakland Raiders (7-7), 3:05 PM CT, CBS
The Line: Indianapolis -3
The Experts: ESPN has a 6-2 vote for Indy, CBS is 3-2 Colts, and Yahoo is 1-1 split.

Another year, different story, same result: The Colts control the AFC South in December. Win out and Peyton Manning will put another invisible division championship trophy on his mantle, but they'll face a tough test on Sunday.

First, Indy takes its struggling road act to the West Coast where Oakland is 5-2. Second, the Colts will take on the fifth-ranked pass defense (197.3 YPG) and third-best sack defense (40). Third, the Raiders are second in rushing (157.5 YPG) which is a weakness of the Colts (28th, 135.3 YPG), and Oakland loves to use Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. The match-up doesn't seem favorable for Indy at all.

The Pick: Colts 23, Raiders 26

Images by eflon used in background images under a Creative Commons license. Thank you.