John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, who has been pushing the line that the Texans will try to trade up for Von Miller or Patrick Peterson, indicated in a chat yesterday that Houston likely will not be able to trade up.
Still seems to me a trade back makes more sense. The LB / DB players available 11-20 seem roughly equal. I see this as a much more likely scenario than mortgaging the future to get one potential superstar, particularly when they are filling personnel to fit Wade Phillips's scheme. They could use the extra picks. What would you put the odds of trading up / picking at 11 / trading down?
John McClain: I'd say trading up 20-80, staying put 80-20 and dropping down 30-70.
Don't ask me how that completely adds up, because it hurts my head to think about it, but I think we can take away from this the thought that the Texans will be more likely to trade down than trade up. The problem with trading down is that there may just not be much of a market to move up. Julio Jones and perhaps a quarterback might be the only players left on the board that would facilitate a trade-up scenario for the Texans. If someone like Nick Fairley fell to the Texans, maybe he'd be a part of the equation as well. But for the most part the good defensive players sliding down would be beneficial for the Texans and make them more likely to keep the pick.
The first round of the 2011 NFL Draft starts at 8 p.m. (ET) on Thursday, April 28, and SB Nation has everything you need to prepare: NFL mock drafts, draft projections, scouting reports, the full NFL draft schedule and more. Check it out at SB Nation's NFL Draft page and our NFL Draft blog, Mocking the Draft.