The Longhorns are rightly the underdogs at Baylor this weekend, but I think they have a decent chance to win this weekend. Here's why...
↵Texas Defense
↵The Texas defense is the best defense in the conference and ranks 9th in the nation. An interesting stat pointed out by Ran Riggs of the Austin American-Statesman, "UT's defense hasn't allowed a TD pass of longer than 19 yds. RG3's 34 TD passes have averaged 35.9 yards each. Something's gotta give." So what will give? I think the answer will be in-between. Texas defense is good enough to hold him under his average and limit him, but RG III is too good to be shut down completely. Last week Texas held Ryan Tannehill 66 yards under his average and picked him off 3 times. 66 yards may not seem like a lot, but consider that Tannehill attempted 49 passes (completed only 20) and the conclusion I come to is that Tannehill couldn't pass against Texas. I believe Texas will hold RG III to between 250-275 passing yards, if they're able to stop the run game as well; that gives their offense a chance to stay in the game. Can they stop the run? They rank 7th against the run this season and held Kansas State who averages 193 rushing yards to 38 yards on 39 attempts. They can stop the run, they two future NFL players at corner, they have a shot.
↵Texas Run Game
↵When Texas scores, it's almost all from their run game. Right now the 'Horns rank 20th in rushing offense with 211 yards per game; against the Bears 98th ranked rush defense, I'll take the over in that stat. Against Kansas and Texas Tech, the Longhorns ran for over 400 yards in each game; I expect Texas to run for close to 300 on Saturday. Texas ran for 191 yards against Kansas State, (67 yards more than their average allowed) who ranks 26th in the nation vs. the run. I think that translates into 275+ at least on Saturday; if they can run for 300, they can win the game.
↵Weather:
↵The reports I've read call for scattered thunder storms and winds of 15 mph; that could limit passing and lead to a sloppy game that I think would favor Texas with their superior defense and run game. It won't be enough by itself, but it could be a big help.
↵Bold Prediction:
↵Texas 27
Baylor 24